268 FXUS62 KFFC 030718 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 318 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 .SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... 500mb analysis shows a broad trough digging across the eastern part of the country. A shortwave is noted across eastern AL moving east in the flow and a second shortwave diving south across the midwest. At the surface, an old frontal boundary remains stationary across central GA. The deepest moisture is along and south of this boundary. Regional radar shows some patchy light rain pushing off to the east this morning, with the heavier rainfall across Florida. The old frontal boundary is expected to remain stationary through tomorrow. The shortwaves within the mid level flow will continue to interact with the boundary and the deep moisture across the southern half of the CWA to produce rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. Hi-res models have backed off on shra/tsra coverage through this afternoon across western portions of the CWA. Did leave some likely pops in the east as models are indicating some very good 250mb upper divergence across east GA and into the Carolina's this afternoon. Do expect lessening of coverage with the loss of heating overnight, but some slight pops in the SE may be necessary. For tomorrow, chance coverage should suffice for now. High temps will remain around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. NListemaa .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... No major changes to the long term forecast aside from decreasing precip chances for Thursday into Friday across the area with lower QPF totals and shifting highest PoPs towards Friday into Saturday. Lowered QPF/PoPs for 1st half of the extended given continuous agreement of a more easterly progression of precip axis along the stationary front. The long-wave trough that's dominated the long term is expected to finally eject eastward moving into Thursday as short wave digs in over the Plains. This shortwave will be the next chance for precip moving into Friday and the rest of the weekend with upper range Change to low end Likely PoPs, with highest chances across central and east-central GA. Moving into the latter half of the extended, model guidance begins to differ with GFS progging mid- level high developing over the GoM while Euro shows broad zonal pattern. Regardless of specifics, still expecting a diurnally driven "summer time" convective pattern Sunday into Monday with Slight Chance to Chance PoPs across the CWA. Like mentioned above, QPF totals lowered slightly with a majority of the area seeing 0.25-0.75" aside from higher totals across central GA nearest surface boundary, around 1.0- 1.5" (with the locally higher amounts possible caveat). Temps in the extended continue to be moderate for this time of year, with high temps in the mid 80s through Friday, around 5-10 degrees below average. These temps should begin to raise back into the 90s on Sunday as the CWA enters a more zonal to slight mid- upper lvl ridging pattern. Morgan && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... Light rain continues to pull off to the east early this morning. Models have backed off on timing of bkn MVFR until right around 12Z. No changes to the precip timing as of right now. Winds have shifted over to the east side. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 79 67 82 67 / 60 30 30 20 Atlanta 81 67 81 67 / 40 20 30 20 Blairsville 76 61 76 60 / 50 30 40 20 Cartersville 83 66 83 67 / 30 20 30 10 Columbus 84 70 85 69 / 50 30 30 30 Gainesville 78 65 80 66 / 50 30 30 20 Macon 83 69 85 69 / 50 40 30 30 Rome 85 67 84 67 / 30 20 30 5 Peachtree City 82 66 83 67 / 40 20 30 20 Vidalia 81 70 83 71 / 60 50 40 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Morgan AVIATION...NListemaa