114 FXUS61 KBTV 310546 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 146 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry but cool weather will continue tonight in wake of cold front which crossed the region this morning. Temperatures will remain below normal through much of the period. Drier weather is expected on Saturday before precipitation chances increase once again on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...Only small tweaks needed to the forecast to match latest observations. Adjusted down sky cover across northern New York and increased it across Vermont through the overnight hours. Surface ridge axis is just beginning to push into NY with decreasing winds and clearing skies. These remain clouds and winds across northern VT have led to a slow drop in hourly temperatures therefore bumped up overnight lows a couple degrees to account for this. Previous Discussion... Behind departing cold front we have gusty northwesterly winds in place this afternoon, though winds will abate after 00z. We've ended up with some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, and temperatures have managed to reach 70 in some spots of our forecast area, especially in the Champlain and Connecticut valleys. Upper level shortwave is crossing the area, but we've lost low level moisture and showers have mostly come to an end. Clouds should continue to dissipate overnight, especially towards early morning. Temperatures tonight will be unseasonably cool with lows dipping into the 40s across most of the north country, with some lower 50s along Lake Champlain. These values are about 10 degrees below seasonal normals for late July. Saturday will continue to feature cooler than normal temperatures with highs only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. We'll start the day with ample sunshine, but have clouds increase from the west by the afternoon hours ahead of next approaching system. Winds will be a bit lighter tomorrow, generally 10 mph or less. Temperatures Saturday night will bottom out about 5 degrees warmer than tonight, and still about 5 degrees below seasonal normals. Clouds continue to increase from west to east, and chance for showers will also increase from west to east though most of the precipitation will hold off until Sunday during the daytime hours. A low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes region with a warm front stretching out ahead of it and bringing the clouds and showers to our western zones. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Rain chances will be on the increase as a sharp upper trough, perhaps cut-off low, dig across the forecast area. The synoptic set- up looks fairly similar to what just unfolded this past Thursday/today. The upper feature is more compact compared to this last one, but differences remain related to the position and strength of two surface lows. Falling pressures off the mid-Atlantic may result in better dynamics and energy removed from our area, but should we see a stronger low tracking north of the Great Lakes and into our forecast area, then we could see some more precipitation. Regardless of how the situation unfolds, our whole forecast area should see at least some precipitation. A weak warm front lifts north early Sunday. This should produce light precipitation over the northern half of the Vermont and New York. Then, we will see cold front move in late in the afternoon. Near the triple point of the surface low, about 500 J/kg of CAPE and favorable synoptic scale forcing for ascent will result in a narrow swath of moderate to heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms. It will just be a matter of where given the forecast spread. The event still lies out of the range of most high resolution ensembles, so will not get too detailed yet, but will focus the highest precipitation amounts over the southern half of Vermont where another 0.50"-0.75" seems likely, with the remainder of the forecast a 0.10" to 0.33". With all the clouds and rain, Sunday will be another below average day in terms of temperatures. Forecast highs will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Though overnight lows will be nearer to seasonal norms with most in the 50s. Any precipitation lingering around the area should start to shift out of the area during the evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Those worried that summer isn't coming back, we can allay your fears. The pattern is on track with a cut- off low breaking off in the Ohio River Valley and an amplifying Bermuda High. We will slowly, but surely moderate to seasonal normals. Surface high pressure stretched east-to-west along the International Border should line up a set of nice weather days. By the next weekend, 925 hPa temps should be back to around 20 C, which usually results in surface temps in the low to mid 80s. It also seems like diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms should make a return next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR across the airspace through the period. Some lingering broken/overcast skies remain around 5000ft across VT with clear skies over NY (outside some lingering stratus over the high terrain). These clouds will continue to dissipate towards morning. Tomorrow high clouds will increase under west/northwest winds less than 10 kt. After 00z, winds will become light and variable. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...LaRocca/Neiles SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...LaRocca