952 
FXUS64 KTSA 290824
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
324 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Main issue remains potential for dangerous heat and humidity the
next few days, before a shift in the upper air pattern brings a
cold front south into the plains by Sunday/Monday. 

Upper ridge axis extends across southern KS and northern OK this
morning, with a notable decrease in moisture seen in precipitable
water values. This has yet to be reflected at the surface, though
some downward trend is expected the next few days. Any drop in
dewpoints likely offset by rise in ambient temp and heat index 
values AOA 105 still common for a couple more days. Will keep the 
advisory/warning config the same for today and will go ahead and 
extend the advisory for all areas Friday, by which time the 
threat of warning level heat indices will be less. Temperatures 
will peak Saturday with many ares reaching the century mark.

Anticipated westward shift and amplification of the upper ridge
still on track for early next week. Cold front expected to
approach Saturday night into Sunday with thunderstorm chances 
returning by that time frame. Gradual progression of the front 
through the area by Monday will provide a break in the heat for
the first half of of next week with lower precip chances overall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   99  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   99  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   96  73  98  74 /   0   0  10   0 
MKO   97  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   97  76  97  77 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for 
     OKZ049-053-054-059-063>065-068-069-073>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for OKZ055>058-060>062-066-067-070>072.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for 
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14