309 FXUS65 KPUB 281740 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 ...Hot on the plains with isolated storms mainly CONTDVD... Currently... At 3 AM, quite a few mid level clouds were noted over the southwest mountains, with more patchy cloudiness noted over parts of the Sangres, San Luis Valley (SLV) and parts of the plains from roughly Pueblo down to Walsenburg. Over the remainder of the region skies were clear. Temps at this hour were generally in the 70s over the lower elevations of the Plains while the ridges (Raton and Palmer) were in the 50s. The SLV were in the 50s while the mtns were generally in the 50s. On the larger scale, the monsoon plume was mainly relegated along and to the west of the CONTDVD. Noticeably dry air was noted from the southern mtns and eastward over the plains; this is especially true in the mid and lower level water vapor channels. Today... The plains are expected to remain dry with very warm temps. With the mid level ridge overhead and very dry air noted over the plains, temps will likely reach into the upper 90s to lower 100s along the Ark Rvr from Pueblo to the KS border. Ridges will be in the mid 90s. Only isolated storms will be possible over the southern mtns and SLV. The best chance of showers and storms will be over the CONTDVD, especially over the San Juans. Some locally heavy rain cant be ruled out over the San Juans. Threat of burn scar flooding is not anticipated today. Tonight... Fair and warm conditions are anticipated. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70F plains, with 40s and 50s in the valleys and mtns. Any lingering showers over the CONTDVD should end by mid evening. \/Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 422 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 ...Cooler and Unsettled Weather for the Weekend and Beyond... Thursday-Friday...The center of upper high remains progged to drift south and east of the Rockies into the central and southern High Plains through the end of the work week, as eastern Pacific energy tops the ridge axis across the Intermountain West and continues to dig across the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. Latest models continue to indicate the bulk of the monsoonal moisture plume to be west of the area Thursday and Friday, as weak east to southeast mid level flow on Thursday becomes more southerly through the day Friday. This will continue to keep the best coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms west of the ContDvd, with generally isolated to scattered higher based storms expected over and near the higher terrain both days. The latest run of the NAM, however, is a tad faster with short wave energy translating down the back side of the ridge across the Northern Rockies on Friday, with its associated cold front aiding in convection firing across and north of the Pikes Peak region late Friday afternoon and evening. The latest NAM is currently an outlier solution, and have stayed with current NBM pops, though will need to continue to monitor models for this potentially faster solution. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will continue to be at or above seasonal levels with highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the plains, and in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain, save for 50s and 60s at the peaks. Saturday-Sunday...Models continue to indicate upper level ridging building back across the southern Rockies and into the Desert Southwest through the weekend, with monsoonal moisture moving back across the region within more west to southwest flow aloft. The increased available moisture, along with a cold front expected to move across the eastern plains on Saturday, will lead to more widespread showers and storms across the area this weekend. Weak steering flow will also lead to slow moving storms with an increasing potential for flash flooding expected this weekend. Temperatures on Saturday to be dependent on timing of the front, though highs on Sunday look to be some 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal levels, coolest across the plains. Monday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging progged to build north into the Great Basin which looks to keep generally cool and unsettled weather in place across the region into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 28 2021 VFR and dry conditions expected across the TAF sites this period. Some isolated showers possible around ALS this afternoon, but with limited coverage, duration, and impacts, have kept the forecast dry at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ