611 
FXUS63 KTOP 280431
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

This afternoon the surface high was moving off to the east with
weak southeasterly flow over eastern Kansas. The upper high
continues to remain over the southern and central Plains while 
the westerlies were north of the border then dipping down into the
Great Lakes and northeast states. Dewpoint temperatures in the 
lower to middle 70s with temperatures in the low to mid 90s with 
heat indices in the 99 to 105 degree range at 19Z.

The main concern for this forecast continues to be the heat and
humidity for the next few days. The upper high will remain 
anchored over the central and southern Plains through early Friday
before being suppressed some to the southwest on Saturday. A 
frontal boundary and or outflow is forecast to move into northeast
Kansas on Friday which may cool temperatures somewhat as well as 
bring a chance for convection to the area, some of which could be 
strong with strong wind gusts the main hazard. Depending on how 
far the front makes it into the northeast corner will determine 
where the cooler temperatures will reside, while the rest of the 
area will likely have another day of very hot temperatures. Will 
continue with the Heat Advisory into Thursday evening and hold off
on any extension into Friday due to the uncertainty with the 
frontal position and associated precipitation and clouds. The 
front looks to slide further to the southwest on Saturday with 
additional chances of convection, some of which may be strong 
where strong wind gusts will again be possible given forecast 
inverted V soundings in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be
across northeast Kansas north of the front while central Kansas 
may see highs in the 90s once again.

The upper ridge will move westward as a trough deepens over the
Ohio Valley Sunday through Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures 
in the 80s and mainly dry weather to the area. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday) 
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Upper level ridging over the area should maintain VFR conditions
through Wednesday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Wolters