686 FXUS61 KBTV 280231 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1031 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... As a cold front moves south of the area tonight, precipitation will come to an end as high pressure builds into the region. This feature will bring dry weather to the North Country on Wednesday with a good deal of sunshine and highs in the 70s. Another round of rain is expected late Thursday into Thursday night followed by cool and breezy conditions for Friday. Some moderation but below normal temperatures will persist through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1031 PM EDT Tuesday...No big changes for this update. Focus for the overnight is still on low clouds and fog. Obstructions to visibility due to mist and fog, including down to a half mile, are being observed at sites including Massena, Potsdam, Ogdensburg, and Lyndonville at this time. Still questionable how widespread dense fog will become, but with little flow, moist conditions below drying air, feel that expanding areas with at least patchy fog at this time seems reasonable. However, timing of the fog development is difficult with mid and low clouds still lingering over much of the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Overall, forecast tonight has trended cloudier for more of the overnight period. Previous Discussion... All precipitation will continue to slowly drift to the south and east through the daylight hours, eventually exiting our region by midnight. Clouds will be a little slower to exit, but overall expect clearing skies overnight. This with light winds and lingering moisture from today's rain will allow fog to develop in the favored valley locations. Lows tonight will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s, though some locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom may dip into the 40s. High pressure builds over the North Country on Wednesday, making for a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 70s. The dry weather continues Wednesday night, though clouds will increase as the ridge shifts to the east. Lows will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in the wider valleys. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 349 PM EDT Tuesday...The first half of Thursday looks to remain dry as mid-level ridging departs eastward, but this will be quickly followed by a series of shortwave passages which bring increasing chances for rain throughout the day. The first wave of showers looks to remain mostly south of our forecast area during mid-day with a surface low ejecting eastward into the Atlantic near the NJ/NY coast. During this time, we will likely see increasing cloudiness across the North Country while a chance of showers exist across Rutland and Windsor counties. This will likely inhibit daytime heating and destabilization. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 70s. Later Thursday afternoon, we will see a secondary area of surface low pressure develop near the NY/Canada border which will be accompanied by a surface boundary. This will bring better chances for showers across the North Country for the evening and overnight hours. Due to the passage of this boundary being later in the day paired with the lack of destabilization earlier in the day, only a slight chance of thunder exists, mainly across the central Adirondacks and south-central Vermont. Chances for rain showers will continue overnight and through Friday as the upper low moves directly overhead while the low/mid-level low deepens off the coast of Maine. Total rainfall through Friday afternoon is expected to range from 0.25-0.50 inches, with the higher end of that range being across eastern Vermont. Meanwhile much cooler air will be advecting in from the northwest with increasing north/northwest winds as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Temperatures on Friday will be noticeably cooler with highs only in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 349 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will then briefly settle across the North Country Friday night into Saturday, resulting in clearing skies and decreasing chances for rain. With a cool airmass still in place, overnight temperatures may feel rather chilly with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Saturday will be a fairly pleasant day weather-wise with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. The next chance for rain showers arrives early Sunday morning and persists throughout the day, owing to a passing low pressure system and its attendant cold front. We could see some thunderstorms with this system, especially if the front does indeed pass during the late afternoon, though the finer details will be further examined as it draws near. Another wave of cooler temperatures will advect in behind this system with high temperatures on Monday again remaining in the 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Conditions trend toward a mix of MVFR/IFR overnight with occnl VFR at selected terminals. Scattered light showers possible through about 03-04Z. Winds light and less than 5 kts. Mainly MVFR expected at KBTV/KBTV/KEFK with higher probabilities of IFR at KMSS/KSLK/KMPV/KRUT. Some LIFR possible at KMSS. After 12Z conditions quickly trend to VFR at all terminals under developing light north to northeasterly flow generally less than 10 kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings/Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Hammond LONG TERM...Hammond AVIATION...JMG