058 FXUS63 KDDC 261658 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1158 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) last night left behind mesoscale convective vorticity (MCV) max which was centered near or just south of Garden City per 0820Z radar imagery. Precipitation from the former MCS in vicinity of the current MCV had waned overnight, however new showers and isolated storms were developing farther east, generally along and east of a Bucklin to Ashland line. This will likely remain the focus for festering convection through the morning hours. By late morning/midday, several of the convective- allowing models (CAMs) suggest a resurgence in deeper, moist convection farther east along our CWA border with NWS ICT. We will maintain higher POPs across south central Kansas counties through the early afternoon hours. Another area that will need to be watched this afternoon will be out west toward the Colorado border where pristine surface-based convection is expected where low level convergence is enhanced in vicinity of leeside trough. The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today shows a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall leading to possible local flood risk in these two mentioned areas, given how slow storm motions may be and the continued fairly high quality low level (and mid level) moisture. As far as temperatures go today, we expected afternoon highs again in the lower 90s outside of thunderstorm activity. Tonight into Tuesday, the large summer subtropical high will continue to expand its influence as it moves out of the Rockies and across the Central/Northern Plains. This, along with weakening low level convergence across the region due to widespread south winds (absence of any low level frontogenetic forcing for mesoscale ascent), should preclude organized thunderstorm development. Thus, the forecast for late tonight and Tuesday is a dry one, although a rogue thunderstorm or two will remain possible given weak capping and fairly abundant deep layer moisture still in place. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 A rather quiet, hot summer pattern is expected the remainder of the week with persistence a good forecast method as the general state of the synoptic atmosphere will not change much at all from Tuesday on through Friday. Highs each day are expected to be right around 100 degrees much of the forecast area, particularly Friday and/or Saturday. By weekend, the global models suggest the large high will break down as northwesterly flow aloft increases across the Northern Plains and Midwest region. One or two disturbances rippling through this pattern would likely enhance the southward push of a polar front down into Kansas, which may put an end to the 100-degree heat and increase thunderstorm potential. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the south at less than 10 knots, shifting to the southeast this evening into the overnight period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 90 70 96 72 / 20 20 10 0 GCK 89 67 95 70 / 20 20 0 0 EHA 91 67 96 69 / 30 30 10 10 LBL 90 69 96 70 / 20 20 10 0 HYS 90 70 97 71 / 20 10 0 0 P28 91 73 98 73 / 40 20 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Hovorka_42