782 FXUS62 KFFC 261008 CCA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 600 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 .SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/... The forecast today remains on track with ample moisture in the region as PWATS border on 2 inches. The higher moisture and surface forcing will be along the Tennessee River Valley where values of SBCAPE could get up to 2000-2500 J/kg. This combination of fuel, moisture, and lift will support afternoon storms expected to start out in North Georgia and use the upper-level northwesterly flow in the lee-side of a high amplitude blocking ridge over the Great Plains to push southward throughout the afternoon and early evening. While these storms are not expected to be severe, a few will likely be strong with gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall. By Tuesday, a high pressure in the Midwest will push a weak, high- pressure-driven 'cold' front into North Georgia, the first in a long while. Not much relief yet forecasted though for the forecast area, and the enhanced surface convergence, combined with an landfalling, weak surface low pressure will push PWATs above 2 inches across the forecast area before pushing these values further south beyond the short term period. This combo will push precip chances between 60-70 percent areawide on Tuesday, with several CAMs indicating some stronger storms will be possible with SBCAPE once again above 2000 J/kg across North and Central Georgia. Highs mostly in the low 90s will range 0-5 degrees above normal, with morning lows in the low 70s around 3-8 degrees above normal. Patchy fog/haze will also once again be possible each morning, but not as prevalent as is has the past several mornings. Thiem .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/... Tuesday night wide spread precipitation will come to an end as the weak "cold" front pushes further into the area. The front will eventually stall across central GA Wednesday and be the focus for afternoon PoPs. Thursday into the Friday the upper high to our west will strengthen and push slightly eastward. Subsidence from the upper high will keep PoPs to a minimum as clearer skies allow for maximum heating and SWRLY surface flow keep dewpoints in the 70s across much of the area. All of this combined has the potential to create heat advisory conditions across the SE portions of the CWA both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Friday evening the upper high will shift even further east and center over OK as an upper trough digs across the Eastern Seaboard sending an attendant surface front toward the CWA. At this point guidance stalls the front across central GA, but the impacts from the front will be minimal. Through the weekend N to NW flow aloft will allow a as series of shortwaves to move across the area with continued rain chances each afternoon and evening. 28 && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... SHRA have dissipated, with widespread patchy fog and haze restricting VSBYs expected once again through 13-16Z. Areal average VSBY reductions should be around 5SM but patchy areas down to 1-2SM will be possible. SHRA/TSRA expected to be a bit more widespread today with PROB30s in place for northern sites and an the margins for southern sites. Winds once again light and VRB at times, synoptically SW to W winds expected at ATL through 6Z tomorrow with a shift to NE expected afterwards. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on all elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 73 91 73 / 40 40 70 30 Atlanta 92 74 91 73 / 40 30 70 30 Blairsville 86 68 85 66 / 60 40 70 20 Cartersville 94 73 91 72 / 50 30 60 20 Columbus 96 75 94 74 / 40 30 60 40 Gainesville 92 73 90 72 / 50 40 70 20 Macon 96 75 95 73 / 30 30 70 50 Rome 94 74 93 73 / 50 30 60 10 Peachtree City 94 73 91 73 / 40 30 70 30 Vidalia 94 75 92 75 / 30 30 70 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...Thiem