560 FXUS62 KMHX 221400 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Thu Jul 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front lingers to the south today. Weak high pressure will build over the area Friday through the weekend. Another cold front will approach from the northwest early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 955 AM Thursday...Wildfire smoke from fires over the western United States is lowering vsby a bit across eastern NC and have reduced vsbys and increased haze/smoke across the CWA for the rest of the day. No other major changes needed to the forecast at this time with a very warm day expected as highs reach from 90 to 93 degrees over most inland areas and mid/upper 80s coast. Rain chances will be slim today with several of the high-resolution models keeping convective development at bay until after 21z this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 730 AM Thursday...Weak high pressure becomes more apparent at the surface tonight and the afternoon showers/tstorms quickly fade away with loss of heating. Onshore flow is expected to calm overnight leading to development of patchy fog in areas that fully decouple, particularly inland. Lows in the upper 60s inland and low 70s for coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM Thu...Weak surface high pressure will remain in control through early next week. Slightly more comfortable airmass expected through the first part of the weekend with dewpoints below climo. A cold front will approach the area early to mid next week, with increasing precip chances. Friday through Monday...With high pressure in control, the result will be a typical summer weather pattern for Eastern NC through Sat with isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and temperatures near normal values. Best chances will be along and west of Hwy 17 Fri afternoon and evening. Most areas will likely remain dry through the weekend. Highs in the 80s, near or slightly below climo through Sat. Though dewpoints will remain below climo and should lead to a more comfortable airmass Friday and Sat. Southerly flow is forecast to develop Sunday into early next week which will result in an increase in temperatures and humidity with highs inland back into the low 90s. High pressure offshore, inland trough strengthening and seabreeze should lead to scattered diurnal showers and storms Mon. Tuesday and Wednesday...Deeper moisture advects into the area combined with increased upper support the approaching sfc front will lead to best rain chances in the period. Will cap pops at high chance Tue and Wed. Temps near climo with highs mid/upper 80s along the coast and upper 80s/low 90s inland. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 18Z Thursday/... As of 730 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR today once thin fog in place burns off. Back to a more typical summertime pattern with isolated shower/tstorms possible in the afternoon. Light Nerly winds to start the day and seabreeze passing through coastal terminals in the afternoon. Winds are expected to decouple overnight leading to patchy fog in the early morning hours. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 225 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Isolated diurnal showers and storms possible Friday, with chances increasing next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 10 AM Thursday...Winds are NNE/NE at 5-15 knots across area waters at late morning with seas generally 2-3 feet. No real changes to the forecast this afternoon with NE winds 5-15 knots and seas 2-3 feet, becoming more ENE/E tonight. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 225 AM Thu...Pretty quiet and pleasant boating conditions expected across the waters into early next week. Easterly winds 5-15 kt Friday, strongest south of Hatteras with seas 2-3 ft. Flow becomes more ESE Sat. Southerly flow increases to 10-20 kt late Sun and Sun night, with seas responding building to 2-4 ft. SSW winds 10-15 kt Mon. Seas will mostly be 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft seas outer waters Sunday during period of stronger flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CTC/CQD/CEB