734 FXUS65 KABQ 210906 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Storm coverage increases across central and western New Mexico starting today with the most widespread coverage likely Thursday through Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be an increasing concern each day this week, especially across the west where localized totals could exceed two inches. Temperatures will remain near to slight below normal through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A similar weather scenario to yesterday is forecast for today with a slight shift westward. 00Z HREF continues to hit north-central and west-central areas the hardest this afternoon with very similar storm steering flow to yesterday. Sandias/east mountain areas and the ABQ metro will likely be spared today given that the deformation axis is about 50 miles farther west this afternoon. Issued flash flood watch for portions of northern and west-central NM as a result of plentiful low-level moisture and the resulting rain rates falling on areas that have been saturated from recent heavy rains. Convection is forecast to taper off most areas several hours after sunset with isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing over the northwest quarter until midnight or so. 07Z HRRR smoke forecast for today reveals less to much less in the way of elevated smoke for central and especially eastern NM today. Inverted cold core closed low remains on track to move over west TX on Thursday. Numerical prediction models agree that this feature will result in increased lift/deformation over the western half of the state Thursday afternoon. The additional lift from this low will combine with abundant low-level moisture (precipitable water values above an inch most areas) and daytime heating to result in numerous strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall. A flash flood watch will likely be needed for much of northern and western NM Thursday but held off for now as to avoid confusion with today's watch. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Models are still coming into better agreement with the retrograding upper-level low although there are still some big timing differences amongst the models. By Thursday night and Friday, models have this low just entering far southeast NM, and the H5 high is pushed westward. The low makes slow westward progress south of I-40 on Friday, and PWATs continue to rise for areas west of the central mountain chain with values well over an inch. Models have the 00Z Sat PWAT at KABQ ranging from 1.1 to 1.3", above the 90th percentile and nearing the daily max of 1.27". The latest WPC Day 3 ERO paints a broad slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of western NM. Heavy rain and flash flooding will become an increasing concern, especially depending on how much rain falls the previous day. The model differences in the track and timing of the low start to come into play this weekend. Most guidance is generally moving the low in a north-northwest direction into central NM. The NAM and GFS track it into AZ by Saturday while the ECMWF and Canadian are notably slower and keep the low over NM through the weekend. Regardless, an active weekend is ahead with widespread showers and thunderstorms, and heavy rain and flash flooding will be the biggest threat, especially across western NM. The low then exits by early next week, and the H5 high reorganizes to our east although there have been some new model differences in how fast it builds over OK/TX next week. When this happens, a more traditional monsoon pattern looks to set up across the area. 33/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns are forecast during the next 7 days thanks to a slow moving upper-level low that will trigger very heavy rainfall and flash flooding for much of the area from the central mountain chain westward Thursday through the weekend. 33 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Late evening convection has pushed mostly into eastern AZ. Wednesday's round of afternoon/evening convection will focus over north-central and west-central portions of the state. KGUP stands the best chances to see storms impacting aviation with brief MVFR cigs/vsbys along with mt obscurations and gusty winds Wednesday afternoon. Storm motion will be to the west-southwest between 10-15kts. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 64 90 65 / 30 40 50 60 Dulce........................... 89 55 85 54 / 60 50 80 60 Cuba............................ 86 59 84 57 / 40 60 70 70 Gallup.......................... 91 60 88 59 / 50 50 60 80 El Morro........................ 85 56 83 55 / 60 50 70 80 Grants.......................... 87 61 85 58 / 40 40 70 80 Quemado......................... 83 59 82 57 / 60 40 70 70 Magdalena....................... 83 62 82 60 / 20 10 60 50 Datil........................... 82 57 81 56 / 40 20 70 60 Reserve......................... 89 59 90 58 / 60 30 60 60 Glenwood........................ 90 65 90 64 / 40 20 50 50 Chama........................... 82 52 81 51 / 60 60 80 60 Los Alamos...................... 83 61 82 60 / 40 50 70 60 Pecos........................... 82 58 82 57 / 40 20 60 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 53 81 49 / 60 40 70 40 Red River....................... 72 47 72 48 / 60 30 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 44 75 48 / 40 30 60 30 Taos............................ 85 53 84 54 / 40 40 60 40 Mora............................ 79 55 78 54 / 40 30 50 30 Espanola........................ 89 61 89 62 / 40 40 60 50 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 85 61 / 30 30 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 60 87 59 / 30 30 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 67 88 66 / 20 20 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 68 90 67 / 10 20 40 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 66 92 66 / 10 20 40 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 67 91 66 / 20 20 50 50 Belen........................... 90 67 92 65 / 10 10 40 50 Bernalillo...................... 93 65 92 65 / 20 20 50 50 Bosque Farms.................... 90 66 91 65 / 10 10 40 50 Corrales........................ 94 66 93 66 / 20 20 50 50 Los Lunas....................... 90 65 91 65 / 10 10 40 50 Placitas........................ 91 65 89 63 / 20 20 50 50 Rio Rancho...................... 91 67 91 65 / 20 20 50 50 Socorro......................... 91 67 92 65 / 10 5 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 62 84 60 / 20 20 50 50 Tijeras......................... 87 61 86 61 / 20 20 50 50 Edgewood........................ 87 59 86 58 / 20 20 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 59 88 58 / 10 10 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 83 59 83 57 / 20 10 30 30 Mountainair..................... 83 61 85 58 / 10 5 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 82 60 84 59 / 10 5 30 40 Carrizozo....................... 85 63 87 63 / 10 5 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 77 57 81 58 / 30 5 20 20 Capulin......................... 82 57 84 57 / 10 5 20 10 Raton........................... 86 57 87 57 / 20 10 30 20 Springer........................ 87 58 88 58 / 20 10 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 84 56 83 56 / 20 10 30 20 Clayton......................... 87 62 90 64 / 10 5 5 0 Roy............................. 83 61 84 60 / 10 5 10 5 Conchas......................... 88 67 90 66 / 5 5 5 5 Santa Rosa...................... 87 65 89 64 / 5 5 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 90 68 91 68 / 5 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 84 65 86 65 / 5 5 5 5 Portales........................ 85 65 87 66 / 5 5 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 87 67 88 66 / 5 5 5 5 Roswell......................... 90 69 91 68 / 5 5 5 10 Picacho......................... 83 63 84 63 / 10 5 10 10 Elk............................. 78 59 80 60 / 10 5 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the following zones... NMZ203-204-206-207-210-211. && $$