952 FXUS61 KRLX 210609 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A moisture depraved cold front slides through the area today with in the way of showers/storms. High pressure then crosses Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1040 PM Tuesday... An isolated storm or two is currently affecting the far NW portion of the forecast area, with the rest of the area remaining quiet. Valley fog will begin to form over the next few hours. Updated the Sky, Wind, and PoP grids to match the current trends, with the rest of the forecast remaining on track. As of 629 PM Tuesday... Updated the Sky grids to match the current trends. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 120 PM Tuesday... Overall no significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. High pressure continues to remain in control across the area, with mainly dry conditions. There could still be a pop up shower or storm, mainly across the mountainous zones later today, but chances are fairly low. Otherwise, hazy conditions continue today, and will linger overnight and into Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary will drop south into the area on Wednesday. This will generate a little wind as compared to today, but overall little effect on the region. There is a possibility of a shower or storm in the afternoon hours, but once again, chances are low. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 202 PM Tuesday... High pressure controls our weather with a pleasant airmass moving in behind the front that passes through on Wednesday. The frontal passage will also hopefully shove most of the haze/smoke south of our region so I gave it no further play in the forecast. This lower dewpoint air coupled with mostly clear skies should enable most locations to drop in the 50s Wednesday night and Thursday night with highs in the comfortable 70s to low 80s for most locations on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1255 PM Tuesday... We reside in a general northwest flow pattern aloft as the dominant upper level ridge out west tries to slowly build eastward across the Great Plains and into the Tennessee Valley by the end of the period. At the surface, a front resides to our north to begin the period with a few afternoon and evening showers/storms possible both Friday and Saturday, with best chances across our northern counties and in the mountains. Temperatures will moderate well into the 80s both days but humidity will remain comfortably low. A warm front then passes through our region late Saturday into Sunday. This will increase the humidity levels across the area and drive an uptick in shower and thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday. Models then diverge early next week with some pushing a cold front southward through our region, while other solutions hang the front up over us. Stayed with the NBM consensus which lingers showers/storm chances and warm/muggy conditions through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 150 AM Wednesday... A moisture deprived cold front just to our north slides through the area today. Flow turns northerly through the afternoon and we could see some gusts during frontal passage in the low to mid teens. Not much in the way of convection, maybe an isolated shower or storm near the higher terrain by CKB/EKN/BKW with some slight chances elsewhere in the lowlands, maybe near CRW during the afternoon. Left most mention of this out of TAFs due to the isolated nature and lower confidence in exactly where they could develop which is potentially anywhere along the front although not expecting really any activity. Most terminals are currently in MVFR due to fog and have most going to IFR or even LIFR by late morning. HTS's obs are not coming through therefore no amendments are scheduled until further notice. The valley fog will lift this morning around 13-14Z, however haze will again affect most terminals with borderline MVFR through the afternoon/evening. After fropa chances for any showers/storms fade in the early evening leaving the area to mainly clear skies with haze and then once again valley fog development overnight into Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/21/21 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L M M L L L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR in early morning valley fog possible Thursday through Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...SL/04 SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JZ