619 FXUS62 KRAH 201354 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 950 AM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front extending west to east across southern North Carolina this morning will drift south and linger through the middle of the work week. Another cold front will move southeast into the Carolinas on Thursday and stall near the coast into the first part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 950 AM Tuesday... Mostly cosmetic changes made this morning mostly to suppress rain chances a bit further south today (following forecast trends) and to bump highs up a bit where sunshine is abundant this morning. The weak surface frontal zone / wind shift has finally settled S of the CWA, with a light NW or N flow behind it. Both temps and dewpoints are at least a couple degrees lower than this time yesterday, with PW down to a glorious 1.06" at GSO. A weak mid level wave and upper divergence max are evident on GOES WV imagery over NE GA and the Wrn Carolinas, and this is expected to continue tracking eastward along the NC/SC border. But the advection of cooler and deeply drier air from the N should suppress the northward extent of any precip shield today, and will keep pops confined to far S sections. Otherwise, expect fair to mostly sunny skies with mostly high clouds streaming across the area for the rest of the day. Expect highs from around 80 to lower 80s SW and S ranging to mid 80s in the far NE. -GIH Earlier discussion from 300 AM: Early morning water vapor imagery reveals longwave troughing across much of the east coast, with a secondary wave across the lower TN valley. The slow moving surface boundary that moved through the area on Monday and brought rainfall to the region is hung up along the NC/SC border,but temps/dewpoints on either side of the front aren't dramatically different with most surface obs reporting mid 60s over mid 60s as of 07Z. Consequently, we are seeing fog/low stratus developing across the area since midnight especially across the NE Piedmont. So far there aren't any sites reporting 1/4SM vsbys and it would appear that the lingering cloud cover aloft (and 3-4kts of surface wind) is preventing fog from becoming too dense, but we will continue to monitor this and issue a dense fog advisory if necessary later this morning. The stalled surface boundary will remain in place today and move little through tonight. Later this afternoon, a weak mid level shortwave trough (and associated weak surface low) will move through the area resulting in isolated/scattered showers in the vicinity of the front. Precip will be spotty in nature and there will likely be a sharp cutoff in how far north showers develop. Areas north of I-85 should remain dry today while areas along US-64 may only see a stray shower or two. The best precip chances will be across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain later this afternoon into early evening and this is highlighted by the HREF/NAM Nest/HRRR quite well. Instability is very limited in this area but I will include at least an isolated mention of thunder across the southern part of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts should be very light, a quarter of an inch or less. The few showers that develop today should remain very isolated in nature tonight. I held onto a slight chance mention across the Coastal Plain through the overnight hours. Temperatures today will rebound from yesterday, but still remain below normal. Highs in the low/mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... The front to our south will quickly wash out on Wednesday and will be replaced by broad southwesterly flow across the area. Meanwhile a weak cold front will approach the area from the NW and should move through the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given limited moisture and instability ahead of this trough, precip chances will be quite low with only some isolated convection possible across the Coastal Plain/Sandhills Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm ahead of this front with most spots once again returning to near normal readings. Highs in the upper 80s/around 90. Post-frontal lows will fall into the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM Tuesday... The upper level pattern at the start of the long term period will feature an eastern U.S. trough that extends into the Carolinas with a strong ridge across the four corners region and another ridge across FL and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Over the weekend into early next week, the ridge aloft will consolidate across the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley as the eastern U.S trough relaxes a bit although some troughing will persist and extend into the mid-Atlantic. Thus a cyclonic flow aloft is expected through the long term with multiple perturbations moving through the eastern U.S trough with associated cold fronts moving across the area early Thursday and again late Monday into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture will be near to slightly below normal at the start of the period with precipitable water values around 1.25 inches on Thursday with PW values gradually increasing during the period, reaching 2.0 inches by late Monday. The result will be a summer like period with a chance of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers or storms each day. Precipitation coverage on Thursday should be confined across the south, with limited coverage on Friday and Saturday with better coverage late in the weekend into early next week. Highs will range near to slightly above average with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period, perhaps coolest on Friday into Saturday. Lows in the upper 60s to around 70 on Friday morning will increase into the lower 70s early next week as dew points and humidity increase. -Blaes && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 616 AM Tuesday... Outside of a few pockets of IFR fog, all of the terminals have managed to avoid the dense fog. Some areas of IFR stratus have developed but these have mainly been across the Coastal Plain and in areas where heavy rain occurred on Monday. Any IFR ceilings that occur this morning should mix out a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions returning well before noon. Later today a weak surface wave will move through the Sandhills, bringing with it widely scattered showers. Only going to include VCSH at FAY and keep all other sites dry as it appears that precip will struggle to hang on as it moves northward. Clouds will linger into the evening/overnight hours but should remain VFR at most sites, borderline MVFR/VFR at FAY/RWI. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will continue at all sites, although FAY could see intermittent periods of non VFR weather through Wednesday with a stalled surface boundary in the area. Mostly dry weather expected Thursday into the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Blaes AVIATION...Leins