766 
FXUS64 KLZK 192255 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
555 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some widely scattered to isolated convection will remain possible
this evening as activity moves from the NE to SW. Most sites
should remain dry...but have mentioned VCSH for this potential.
Expect VFR conditions to be dominant through the period...though
some patchy fog could be seen near sunrise Tue. Additional
isolated/scattered convection could be see at some terminals for
Tue afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over the western US, and 
a broad and weak trof will remain skewed across the region from the 
Atlantic thru eastern Texas. At the surface, a slow-moving cold 
front was just barely continuing to sink southward near the AR/LA 
border region. This boundary will continue to move southward and 
will become diffuse over the next day or so.

With the front across the area and the weak trof aloft, chances for 
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast, with the 
highest rain chances across the southeast portion of the area. In 
other areas, rain chances will be more hit-or-miss.

Temperatures will continue to remain a bit below climo thru the 
short term, which should be welcome news. 

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

Not many changes were made to the long term portion of the forecast 
this afternoon as overall components appear mainly the same as 
yesterday. As the period progresses, the western US H500 ridge is 
expected to flatten a bit and expand eastward toward the state. 

This will provide little in the way of rain chances as well as an 
increase in temperatures through the early part of next week. High 
temperatures from Saturday through Monday are expected to top out in 
the mid to upper 90s across much of the forecast area. When combined 
with Td values in the upper 60s to lower 70s F, some heat related 
concerns may develop as heat indices could approach or exceed 105. 
Chances for precip will remain largely diurnally driven and very 
isolated in nature.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62