957 FXUS64 KLUB 190558 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1258 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the early morning hours. However, quite a bit of uncertainty regarding ceilings as the evolution of conditions will depend on the decaying showers over the eastern Rolling Plains and southern TX Panhandle. Guidance has begun to hint at a stratus deck moving into the region from the north or northeast, eventually impacting KCDS and KPVW towards daybreak. Hi-res guidance all show varying degrees of cloud cover, but consensus is that if low stratus does materialize, it will be MVFR/IFR. Confidence is low enough at this point that SCT mentions were kept at KPVW and KCDS. Observational trends will be monitored and amendments issued as needed, but high cloudiness will limit satellite effectiveness at detecting low clouds through the morning hours. KLBB is expected to remain VFR through the morning. Another forecast challenge will be convective coverage. For now, hi-res guidance suggests the possibility of re-development of thunderstorms during the morning hours. Confidence in this occurring is low, so VCTS was carried for KPVW and KLBB for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 814 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ UPDATE... Quick update to pump up PoPs across the northeast and east portions of the forecast area as a broken line of t-storms heads south through the eastern TX Panhandle. Also adjusted winds to show the organized strong outflow moving south along with the storms. West Texas Mesonet stations in the vicinity are showing N-NE winds sustained around 25 to 35 mph. At this time, it's still uncertain how far to the southwest (e.g. the Lubbock area) the activity will extend overnight as the activity farther west across the Panhandle is currently much weaker. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ AVIATION... VFR conditions will persist through much of the next 24 hours, except if a shower or thunderstorm moves near or over a terminal. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening and tonight at all terminals. As a result, will continue to favor an extended period of VCTS in the TAFs to cover for the possibility. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021/ SHORT TERM... Isolated, scattered showers have developed across the Rolling Plains and then southwestward to the northern Permian Basin along the remnants of an outflow boundary from an overnight MCS that moved across the western part of the forecast area and was in its dying phase in southeastern New Mexico. Regarding the bubbling showers across the forecast area this afternoon, shear is very weak and will definitely favor a very elementary 45 minute or so full life cycle with little in the way of outflow interaction being able to organize activity into anything more widespread. CAPE profiles and moisture levels favor the potential for a few strong updrafts on the upward bound, the downdrafts of which could produce marginally severe wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall in line with previous thinking. Much of the instability in the area of ongoing convection should get tapped out by early evening at which time the focus shifts to the north/northeast with the possibility of an approaching short wave trough bringing a round of isolated to scattered convection overnight. A slight increase in shear with the approach of the shortwave will bring a modest increase in potential for more widespread precip. One more upper trough during the day Monday combined with the modestly unstable and weakly-capped air mass will bring the chance for additional showers and storms mainly during the afternoon hours. With the limited potential for organized convection the lower MOS values for PoP's have been favored. Otherwise, no significant adjustments were made to the initialization. LONG TERM... We pick up this period with flow aloft beginning to turn out of the northeast, typically setting up a cooler, but drier, pattern for us. The persistent western ridging will start to show signs of gradual weakening and flattening, allowing a trough to retrograde into TX by Tuesday afternoon. The start of this period, though, Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, will continue to see a chance for thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain across much of the CWA as a backdoor front/trough confronts PWATs well in excess of 1.3". Rain chances will quickly come to an end Tuesday morning from northeast to southeast as flow aloft continues to veer to the northeast, pulling in cool, dry air aloft. From here, a roughly 1020mb sfc high generally over MO sweeps out the rest of our moisture. For those who have been complaining of the humidity of recent days, Wednesday will be your best day this week as the drier air remains in place, but this will be fleeting. By Thursday, we start to see Gulf moisture advecting into the region, bringing back that uncomfortable and unusual late July sticky feeling. The aforementioned trough will cutoff over West Texas by Friday, and could bring a return of rain chances by next weekend. Models are still highly uncertain how far this low slips under the ridge by next weekend, so we have kept to slight mention PoPs for now. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/10/07/74