417 FXUS64 KJAN 182330 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period. While VFR conditions will be predominant, periodic, brief IFR/MVFR conditions can be expected when thunderstorms and heavy rainfall move over any TAF locations./GG/ && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Tomorrow... Things have been pretty progressive this morning and throughout the day today. Although rain is expected through the night, showers and storms are expected to continue along this forward propagation pattern through this evening and into the night. Dropped the flash flooding HWO graphic due to this newly made assessment. As we get into early Monday morning possibly around 4/5AM, flow aloft is expected to pick back up(850mb winds between 15-20kts) across the west and some backing/buildup may be possible. With this kind of flow and winds being out of the west this is a good set up for some training to occur. According to CAM guidance at least 2-3 inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time. There is still some uncertainties as to exactly where this training set up could occur. Some guidance puts it across SHV region and others closer to the western parts of our area. Due to this uncertainty will hold off on introducing anything into the HWO for Monday and wait until a few more model runs to better assess an area of interest. We are currently in a very moist atmosphere(PWs around 2") so regardless it will be raining across the ArkLaMiss much of the day tomorrow. Thunderstorms are expected tomorrow and even a few may become briefly strong with gusty winds but any severe potential at this time is low. With increased cloud cover expected tomorrow, highs will only range from the lower to mid 80s./JNE/ Monday night into the weekend... Our wet pattern continues across the region early this week as the upper trough axis lingers over us. This will combine with sufficient moisture(PW values forecast to remain around 2 inches into at least mid-week) and daytime heating to bring higher than usual rain chances to the region. By Wednesday, this upper trough finally looks to exit the region with upper ridging trying to exert more of an influence for mid to late week and especially into the weekend. In fact, models indicate that by the weekend and into early next week, a rather large ridge of high pressure over the western CONUS will expand further east, shunting any kind of troughing pattern north and east of the region. This will all lead to more of a hotter weather pattern for late in the week. Rain chances will become more diurnal in nature. Highs will reach back into the 90s, and heat stress may become more of a concern for the region, especially if we hold onto any low to mid 70s dewpoints. This could result in heat indices approaching 100 degrees in some locations. While potential for severe weather will need to be assessed on more of a daily basis through the long term, given saturated soils and high moisture content, any storm has potential for flooding if the flow is not strong enough and rainfall is efficient. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 84 71 85 / 65 91 67 81 Meridian 72 83 69 85 / 61 93 70 86 Vicksburg 74 85 71 85 / 68 77 64 68 Hattiesburg 74 85 71 85 / 32 94 72 88 Natchez 74 85 70 85 / 49 87 76 73 Greenville 73 85 70 85 / 71 69 42 60 Greenwood 73 85 70 86 / 79 74 53 72 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$