598 FXUS65 KABQ 181814 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1214 PM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021 .UPDATE... The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include parts of western NM. The latest suite of models this morning shows convection that develops within central NM merging into a large cluster of heavy rain over western NM thru this evening. Storm motions will evolve from northeast/southwest to west/east then southeast/northwest thru tonight. The 12Z PW at KABQ was 1.21" which is the highest so far this season and a known threshold for elevated flash flood concerns. The greatest risk will be in areas that have received recent heavy rainfall and near burn scar areas. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...1154 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021... .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE SHRA/TSRA are already developing over the higher terrain as of 18Z and coverage will increase further w/ numerous storms thru late this evening. Storm motions will start out from northeast to southwest before shifting from east to west then southeast to northwest by tonight. Direct hits will produce very heavy rainfall, small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, and strong downburst winds. SHRA/TSRA will linger well into the night over western NM followed by clearing after sunrise. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...323 AM MDT Sun Jul 18 2021... ...INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY... .SYNOPSIS... The active monsoon pattern will continue with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The greatest precipitation chances will be found along and west of the central mountain chain each day, where many places should accumulate a quarter inch to over 1.25 inches of rain over the next week. With high pressure aloft remaining north of New Mexico, storms will generally move toward the south, southwest, and west off the high terrain each day, causing wetting precipitation to be a little spottier over eastern areas this week. High temperatures will vary from near normal to around 7 degrees below normal each afternoon today through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... The center of the H5 high should shift north of Grand Junction today, but an abundant amount of moisture will remain across the area. The PWAT on the 00Z sounding was 0.97" which is within the 90th percentile for this time of year, and PWATs will continue to remain well above normal once again today. With the high positioned to our north-northwest, steering flow will be weak and roughly from the northeast to southwest. With saturated profiles and moderate instability this afternoon, it will be another active monsoon day. Convection will form by late morning over the high terrain areas and will expand in coverage as they move south-southwest onto lower elevations. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is again the primary concern for today. WPC's Day 1 ERO expanded the slight risk farther southwest into the Gila, and as such, did expand the Flash Flood Watch into that area where confidence was higher in the potential for heavy rainfall. With the overnight convection in the Quay and Curry county areas where radar estimated 2 to 4 inches of rain, did consider expanding the Watch to include these counties, but confidence was lower here. With today's steering flow, a slight reduction in storm coverage in the east is expected. However, some models are depicting convection in the area later this evening which is going to be dependent on the currently ongoing activity and if and/or how fast cloud cover can diminish to allow the atmosphere to destabilize more. Will leave it up to the day shift to further evaluate the morning trends to see if a Flash Flood Watch is warranted in the far east central counties. Much like last night, convection will likely continue through the overnight hours although storm intensities should decrease with the loss of daytime heating. The H5 high stays centered over northwestern CO Monday while perhaps strengthening a decameter. PWATs trend down slightly on Monday as some drier air circling the high starts to filter into NM. Storm coverage trends down across northern NM, but well above normal PWATs continue for the southern half of the CWA. This allows for yet another active monsoon day with more heavy rain and flash flooding potential. 15 LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... The center of high pressure at 500 mb is forecast to vary around UT, CO and southern WY through the period. This will allow monsoon moisture to remain over the forecast area with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms generally moving toward the south, southwest, and west. Models are changing the way they handle an upper level trough that is forecast to track southward through the Great Plains this week. The latest runs show the western end of the trough and an associated moist backdoor front sweeping southward through eastern NM with an enhancement of precipitation there Monday night into Tuesday morning. The front should cool temperatures a few to 5 degrees across northern, central and eastern parts of the forecast area on Tuesday. Then, drier air is forecast to advect over the southeast third of the forecast area from the east and southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday, tightening the moisture gradient over the continental divide region of western NM Wednesday and potentially into Thursday, where/when there will be an increased risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. At the end of the week, there looks to be an expansion of precipitation into eastern parts of the state as low level moisture increases from the southeast and an upper level low pressure system tracks slowly westward through TX. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... An active monsoon pattern continues over the next 7 days with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread activity is expected today with the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially on or near burn scars and areas where soils are saturated. A slight reduction in storm coverage is expected on Monday as moisture decreases, but moisture trends back up by Tuesday and the active pattern continues through the end of the week. Steering flow this week will generally be south to southwest, but slow and erratic storm motions will be possible. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones... NMZ205>209-212-214-215-218>226-228-229-232-233-237-239-241. && $$