054 
FXUS64 KMAF 181500 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

TS and -SHRA are slowly starting to weaken but another rounds of
storms is set to move in this afternoon. Confidence is low to 
include TS & -SHRA in this current TAF cycle but AMDs will be 
made if necessary. Light winds will continue out of the southeast
but likely increase this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today) 
Issued at 956 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

MCS slowlymovingg s thru Lea/Eddy Co has brought some heavy rain 
and with cloud top temps only showing very slow 
warming/consolidation of coldest temps and we expect it to 
persist the next few hrs. As such we have increased PoPs and 
lowered high temps a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

Upper ridge centered on the CO/WY border Monday night will extend 
from Mexico to Canada.  To the east a trough moving down across 
OK/AR will move into E TX.  By Tuesday this trough will extend from 
TN to half way across TX forming a closed low on Wednesday.  This 
low is expected to slowly drift west passing under the ridge and 
over the region Saturday before moving into Mexico Sunday.

A weak cold front sags down into the area Monday night/Tuesday 
morning.  With easterly upslope flow Tuesday highs in the Permian 
Basin should stay in the 80s with 90s along the Trans Pecos into 
Eddy County.  80s continue Wednesday and to a lesser extent Thursday 
before 90s return Friday through the weekend.  Lows in the mid 60s 
to mid 70s Tuesday morning with mostly 60s Wednesday and Thursday 
morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front... the 
best chance Monday night will be over the Nrn Permian Basin.  On 
Tuesday highest pops will shift south with the front and be over the 
Srn CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Currently expect lower rain 
chances Thursday and Friday with the best chance over the weekend 
being south of the Pecos.  Will have to monitor the progression of 
the closed low late in the week as a possible wx producer. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  72  90  69 /  10  10  30  40 
Carlsbad                 91  71  93  71 /  50  20  20  20 
Dryden                   93  73  95  75 /  10   0  10  20 
Fort Stockton            94  70  95  71 /  20  10  20  20 
Guadalupe Pass           84  68  86  66 /  50  20  20  20 
Hobbs                    87  69  90  67 /  50  20  20  30 
Marfa                    89  63  89  62 /  40  20  20  20 
Midland Intl Airport     92  72  92  70 /  20  10  20  30 
Odessa                   92  72  92  70 /  20  10  20  30 
Wink                     96  73  95  72 /  30  10  20  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$