304 FXUS64 KSJT 181103 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 603 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 An upper level ridge will remain over the Rockies today and tonight. With this setup, our area will have weak northerly flow aloft. As the airmass destabilizes today, not out of the question to have isolated shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening, mainly in the Big Country north of I-20. A few of the hi-res models hint at this possibility. Otherwise, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, expect temperatures today to reach the lower to mid 90s for highs. Mainly south winds this morning will become southeast this afternoon, at 5-10 mph. For tonight, may have a weak disturbance move south into our area, on the eastern periphery of the ridge aloft. Carrying low PoP tonight for the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms in much of the Big Country tonight. Depending on the extent of convective development from the north, could have an increase in high cloud cover tonight. Lows tonight will 71-74 degrees, which is near normal for mid-July. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 A wet weather pattern will develop across West Central Texas for at least the first half of the work week. A ridge of high pressure will remain parked over the southwest, with a few shortwave troughs moving southward across west Texas on the back side of the ridge. A weak cold front will move into the forecast area Monday, with showers developing along the front. The best chance of rain will occur Monday night through Tuesday as a decent shortwave trough moves in and the remnants of the weak cold front linger. With plenty of moisture across the area, we could see some heavy rainfall and decent rainfall amounts with some of the thunderstorms. The best rain chances will move to the south by mid week, generally along the Interstate 10 corridor. Will be watching the progress of a weak cutoff low for mid to late week, which may continue the rain chances each afternoon through Friday. Will see temperatures near normal or slightly below normal next week with increased cloud cover and rain possibilities. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Patchy low clouds are developing over the southern part of our area early this morning. Expect occasional MVFR ceilings at our southern terminals. This low cloud cover should break up around mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight, in the Big Country mainly north of I-20. Although KABI may be potentially affected, the low chance of occurrence and uncertainty in placement precludes a mention at this point. For late tonight/early Monday morning, may have some patchy low cloud development over the I-10 corridor, but with it being toward the end of the TAF period and with less chance of occurrence, not mentioning in our southern terminals at this time. This can be revisited with subsequent model data. Winds will be generally south to southeast at 5-10 knots during the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 92 69 / 10 20 40 60 San Angelo 96 73 94 70 / 5 10 20 40 Junction 95 72 95 71 / 5 5 20 50 Brownwood 95 73 93 70 / 5 10 40 60 Sweetwater 93 72 91 68 / 10 10 20 50 Ozona 94 72 94 70 / 5 5 20 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...19