286 FXUS64 KSJT 180533 AAC AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 Updated counties north of I-20 for a slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms, based on radar trends. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 A dry forecast for the most part the next 24 hours. Warm and muggy conditions will persist across the area in Sunday. A weak disturbance in northerly flow may spark of a few showers and thunderstorms across the northern Big Country Sunday afternoon and will continue with slight POPs to account for this potential. Otherwise, dry weather will continue, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs Sunday in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021 The main story for the long term is the increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms and below normal temperatures, for much of the upcoming work week. On Monday, a weak cold front will move into the Big Country late in the day. This may serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Monday night into Tuesday, the front will slowly move south, shifting the best rain chances into our central counties and eventually our southern counties late Tuesday. The main concern with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall, as precipitable water values increase to 1.5 to 2 inches. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Tuesday only in the mid to upper 80s. An upper level low is forecast to be centered across East Texas on Tuesday. This low is forecast to slowly track west, Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in a continuation of rain chances across the forecast area through the end of the work week. In addition, below normal temperatures can be expected with highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 80s. Highs on Friday will approach the lower 90s, with highs Saturday mainly in the low to mid 90s. Generally drier conditions are forecast this weekend, although a few storms may linger into Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021 Some patchy low clouds are expected to develop over the southern part of our area early this morning, potentially resulting in brief MVFR ceilings at our southern terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early evening in parts of the Big Country north of Abilene. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20 and KABI. Winds will be mainly from the south to southeast at 5-10 knots during the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 91 69 86 / 5 30 60 60 San Angelo 72 95 71 89 / 5 20 40 60 Junction 70 95 71 88 / 5 20 30 70 Brownwood 73 92 71 86 / 5 30 60 70 Sweetwater 73 92 69 85 / 5 20 50 50 Ozona 71 95 71 89 / 5 10 20 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...04 SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...19