211 
FXUS64 KTSA 170213
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
913 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Latest radar imagery shows isolated convection continuing along 
the KS/OK border to the west of Osage County and within a zone of
deeper convergence with signs of new development further east. 
This activity is forecast by short term models to expand eastward 
across northeast OK overnight and potentially become anchored in 
the area that saw heavy rainfall last night. Current forecast has 
the highest POPs across northern most counties but if current 
trends continue these may need to be increased especially in the 
09-15Z time frame. Flooding will also be a concern if storms with 
higher rainfall rates do materialize and begin to train over this 
area. Other region of concern is far southeast OK where there has 
been a signal for development in a similar warm advection pattern 
though this area is also beneath more diffluent flow aloft which 
would favor backbuilding cells. Overeall there is lower confidence
in this as focus may be initially further south into north TX. 

Remainder of forecast looks in good shape and aside from possible
increase in POPs and clouds across northeast OK/northwest AR no
major changes are anticipated.  


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions prevail this evening across eastern Oklahoma 
and western Arkansas. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will 
likely increase later this evening and overnight across 
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With uncertainty 
on how the convection will evolve, have only included VCTS 
at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas TAFs. 
VFR conditions will likely continue through tonight with MVFR 
to IFR conditions possible in and near thunderstorm areas. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Main area of convection continues to slowly push to the south and
east this afternoon, leaving an outflow boundary from far
southeast into north central OK. Mid level trough will also
continue to slide southeast tonight and while overall forcing will
not be as strong tonight, persistent warm advection and moisture
transport will continue to interact with the above mentioned
boundary. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely
to redevelop later this afternoon and evening as a result, albeit
less organized than what we saw early the morning. At this time 
no additional, flood watches are planned, though a corridor of 
higher precip chances may become defined later this evening and 
should it coincide with areas that already saw heavy rain, a 
short-fused watch could be needed.

Effective boundary with a humid airmass and at least subtle
forcing in NW flow aloft will persist the next couple of days, 
resulting in continues showers and thunderstorm chances. Given 
precipitable water in the 2 inch range, efficient rain production
remains likely and any areas that receive additional rounds of 
rainfall will be prone to flooding. The overall trend though 
should be for the highest probability to shift a bit south by 
Saturday into Sunday.

Monday continues to show higher precip chances as western US 
ridge amplifies and mid level low in northerly flow drops south 
and west into the area. By mid to late next week, it appears ridge
will strengthen over the southern plains resulting in more 
typical summer weather with hot and humid conditions and reduced 
precip chances.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24