546 FXUS62 KTAE 160600 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .UPDATE... VFR conditions will prevail through the next few hours but MVFR/IFR cigs could develop a few hours before sunrise. The greatest probabilities for this are at inland terminals across KDHN/KABY. Brief periods of LIFR can't be ruled out before VFR conditions return after 13z. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION [847 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Friday]... A weak disturbance in the eastern Gulf is aiding in scattered strong to isolated severe convection focused across the Panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA this afternoon. The environment remains moist and unstable, giving storms the capability of pulsing up and down, and producing pockets of heavy rain/gusty winds/lightning. Furthermore, the overall steering flow is weak, prompting slow-moving cell motion that could pose a localized flooding threat. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for excessive rainfall exists for most locations north of I-10, so will need to monitor rain rates carefully over the next several hours. Outflow boundaries and seabreeze fronts should drive storm motion and additional development at the mesoscale level, while producing sudden wind gusts/shifts. Inland convective activity should gradually diminish after sunset, but expected to redevelop over our waters late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through Friday afternoon and focuses over the western portion of our CWA as the aforementioned disturbance pivots around the Forgotten/Panhandle coast. The main concerns will once again be heavy rain, lightning, and gusty-to-strong winds. Hot and humid conditions will not let up through the near-term, with high temperatures in the low 90s and heat indices around 100. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the low 70s. .SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]... The subtropical ridge axis appears to hold firm across the region despite a neighboring trough near the OH Valley this weekend. East to southeast flow should remain in place, thus keeping us within a moist/unstable airmass. As such, diurnally drive convection is expected through the short-term, but PoPs are generally no greater than 50%, likely because of the introduction of relatively drier air in the mid-levels. However, that factor can be a "double-edged sword" as sometimes dry-air intrusion could aid in downburst/gusty wind potential from storms that do develop. The temperature forecast is largely unchanged from the near-term. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... An unsettled pattern unfolds in the long-term as the aforementioned trough drops down into the region and drags a frontal boundary. The front will serve as an additional focus for scattered to numerous showers/storms, and appears to stall across our area until mid- week. As a result, PoPs are higher-than-normal from Monday- Wednesday. Thereafter, the aforementioned trough moves off the Atlantic coast and is replaced by subtropical ridging. Thus, expect a return to a more typical summertime convective pattern to close out the period. The increased rainfall and cloud cover should allow high temperatures to "cool" into the mid-upper 80s next week, but overnight lows remain in the low-mid 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] With convection winding down across the region a return to VFR conditions is in store through early afternoon tomorrow when summertime afternoon convection makes a return. .MARINE... Favorable boating conditions prevail over the next few days outside of thunderstorms for which chances noticeably increase early next week. East to southeast winds persist through Saturday, become southerly Sunday and Monday, then switch out of the southwest heading into Tuesday. .FIRE WEATHER... There are minimal fire concerns over the next few days as we remain within a moist airmass and see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A wet pattern appears to unfold beginning early next week, further mitigating any threats. Low afternoon dispersions are forecast in portions of the Big Bend and I-75 corridor Friday and Saturday. .HYDROLOGY... Slow-moving convection this afternoon will pose a localized heavy rain/flooding threat in the Panhandle, southeast AL, and portions of southwest GA for which a marginal risk (level 1/5) for excessive rainfall exists today. Rain chances become a bit tempered this weekend before a wet pattern unfolds beginning on Monday with the approach of a front. Even so, 7-day QPF amounts are generally 1" or less, but those values hinge on where the aforementioned front ultimately sets up. In terms of rivers, Steinhatchee near US-19 remains in minor flood stage but continues its downward trend. Although several rivers between the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and Suwannee basins are in action stage, those sites are either cresting or falling. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 73 92 73 93 / 40 0 40 10 40 Panama City 89 75 89 75 89 / 30 0 30 10 40 Dothan 91 73 91 72 90 / 60 20 40 20 40 Albany 93 74 94 74 95 / 50 20 40 20 40 Valdosta 93 73 93 73 93 / 40 20 40 20 40 Cross City 92 74 92 73 91 / 10 10 30 20 40 Apalachicola 88 76 87 76 87 / 30 0 30 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dobbs NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM...IG3 AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3