331 FXUS62 KCHS 160529 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 129 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Deep high pressure will prevail through this weekend. A weak front will move into the region early next week, possibly stalling in the vicinity midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 130 AM: IR satellite detected a few clusters of thicker high clouds across the CWA tonight. Satellite trends indicate that the cirrus will gradually dissipate over the next 2-3 hours. Sky trends will be updated through the rest of the night. Otherwise, the forecast appears in good shape. Previous Discussion: Convection has pretty much fizzled at this juncture with loss of heating/increasing CINH across the region. Anticipate dry weather for the remainder of the night along with gradually diminishing cloud cover. Patchy shallow fog remains a possibility, mainly where we saw rainfall today, although I've kept a fog mention out of the forecast at this juncture. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s most areas, to the upper 70s near 80 close to coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep mid-level ridging will remain across the area through the weekend. Due to plentiful subsidence/drier air, PWATs will generally be less than 1.5 inches, before increasing to around 2.0 inches on Sunday afternoon. Even so, coverage of showers should be limited to isolated to scattered through the weekend along the sea breeze and any other boundaries that form. While the overall severe threat is low, thunderstorms will be possible and a few stronger storms cannot be completely ruled out. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with cooler temps just along the coast. Lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper-level trough north of the area will slowly shift eastward early week as a weak cold front drops further south. The front is then expected to stall over the area or in the vicinity early week. Associated deep moisture will venture into the region, increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. The front should move offshore by mid- week and somewhat drier weather can be expected. Although, typical, summertime diurnal showers/thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the 6Z TAF period. It is possible that ground fog will develop at KCHS and KSAV during the pre-dawn hours, little to no visibility restrictions expected. A sea breeze is forecast to push across the terminals during the early afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop along and west of the sea breeze this afternoon into early evening. The placement of the convection should remain outside the vicinity of the terminals. Winds will favor a direction from the south, peaking in the afternoon around 10 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers/thunderstorms each afternoon. && .MARINE... Tonight: The marine zones will remain situated along the western side of a high pressure ridge. Southerly winds anticipated through the overnight hours generally around 10 kt. Seas will remain on average between 2-3 feet. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure will remain the predominant feature through the weekend. Then by early week, a cold front will approach the area, before lingering over or in the vicinity. South to southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will prevail with seas 2 to 3 feet. Rip Currents: A 2-3 ft/9 sec swell will linger at the beaches Friday as well as breezy winds. Therefore, have introduced a moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches. Waterspouts: Due to light wind fields and the expectation that the early morning land breeze boundary will develop, there could be an elevated risk of waterspouts Friday morning. The potential will end as the land breeze transitions into a sea breeze that moves onshore during the late morning and early afternoon. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...