805 FXUS64 KMEG 151142 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021/ DISCUSSION... It is a quiet night across the Mid-South. Current temperatures are in the low 70s and winds are light/calm as high pressure remains across the SE US. Expect today to be similar to yesterday, with the possibility of some afternoon showers during the afternoon. Highs will generally be in the 90s. Surface high pressure and upper ridging will start to slide to the east on Friday, as an upper trough dives towards the Mississippi Valley. Greater rain chances will start Friday afternoon and really continue through much of the weekend into early next week. With modest instability and minimal shear a strong storm cannot be ruled out over the weekend. However, no organized severe weather is expected at this time. The primary threat with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values on Saturday and Sunday will average around 2". Temperatures over the weekend will be slightly cooler given the presence of clouds and rain. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. A frontal boundary associated with the upper low will slowly try to move through the area early next week. Maintained some chance Pops through at least Tuesday to account for some discrepancies regarding the timing of the surface and upper level features. By mid-week, upper ridging across the Western CONUS may start to nudge into the region diminishing rain chances by mid-week. 17 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs A near persistence forecast for today. Typical midsummer instability, suggestive of TSRA, but with weak vertical wind shear and limited TSRA organization potential. Left VCSH in a few of the TAFs as a low confidence hedge. An isolated TSRA can't be ruled out. Guidance suggest low level pressure gradient will tighten with the approach of a midlevel low pressure trof from the northwest. This may keep southerly tail wind component above 7KT for this evening's MEM inbound push. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$