568 
FXUS64 KBRO 150535 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF
period, with brief MVFR ceilings or passing showers into Thursday
morning. Expect light southeasterly winds gusting to near 18 kts
late morning through the afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule through the
next 24 hours. Convection is not expected tonight or through the
daylight hours of Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Deep South Texas 
and the Rio Grande Valley continue to lay under a weakness in the 
broad mid level ridge across the southern CONUS. At the surface, 
high pressure over the the southern East Coast and northeast Gulf 
of Mexico will allow light to moderate southeast winds to persist 
through the short term, allowing Gulf moisture to continue to 
stream across the region. This pattern will allow for slight 
chance PoPs to continue today and again tomorrow. Any convection 
will primarily be diurnally driven with the sea breeze and any 
resulting boundaries as seen today...and will likely repeat 
tomorrow, but perhaps on a lesser scale with PoPs scaling back a 
bit as the mid level ridge tries to strengthen slightly overhead. 
Brief heavy rain will continue to be possible near any stronger 
shower or thunderstorm, as well as occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning and gusty winds. Temperatures will be near 
normal both tonight and Thursday night with lows in the mid to 
upper 70s and only slightly below normal Thursday afternoon with 
highs in the lower to mid 90s (except along the coast, where highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s).

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):Drier weather will filter 
into deep south Texas into Saturday as a midlevel ridge builds into 
the area. Even with the drier air a slight chance (under 10%) of 
afternoon sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will continue. Late 
Saturday night into Sunday, a weak inverted trough will develop over 
the wester Gulf, this will help to slightly bump up chances of 
precipitation Sunday and Monday. As we head into midweek, a midlevel 
trough extending from the Northeastern US into the Southern 
Plains will lead to a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. 
Exactly how far south this trough extends will determine chances 
and amounts. Models continue to differ in reach and precipitation 
amounts with the Euro remaining more bullish than the GFS. Will 
continue to lean towards the GFS for this update, with POP 
chances between 20-30% for much of the region. Temperature trends 
will hold near or slightly below seasonal normals through the end 
of the period.

MARINE: Now through Thursday Night...Isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will likely continue this afternoon and 
during the day tomorrow across the lower Texas coastal waters. Some 
of these storms could produce occasional to frequent lightning, 
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Otherwise, generally favorable 
marine conditions are expected with moderate southeasterly winds and 
low seas through the short term.

Friday through Monday... Generally favorable conditions are 
expected across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters early Friday but 
by Friday afternoon may see winds briefly increase with SCEC 
conditions possible into early evening. Isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms through the period may lead to locally 
enhanced winds and wave heights. Otherwise, no other relatively 
adverse conditions are anticipated over the lower Texas coastal 
waters with light to moderate southeasterly flow persisting across
the lower Texas coastal waters through much of the period. &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  90 /  10  10   0  10 
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  79  92 /  10  10   0  10 
HARLINGEN            77  94  77  93 /  10  10   0  10 
MCALLEN              78  94  78  94 /  10  10   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  99  77  98 /  10  10   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  81  86 /  10   0   0  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

56-Hallman...Aviation