734 FXUS64 KLUB 142324 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 624 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms currently over New Mexico will move east into Texas later his evening; however, these storms are expected to remain north and west of the terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form again tomorrow. These storms should move into the area outside of this TAF cycle. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ SHORT TERM... The upper level trough that will bring some clouds and a slight chance for thunderstorms across the extreme southwest Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico later tonight, is currently moving ESE past the Four Corners region. Gradual surface pressure falls will work south across eastern New Mexico overnight into tomorrow. The best chance for showers and storms will remain well north of our area, in the northern Texas Panhandle and southern Kansas. Weak vorticity advection along the southern portion of the trough will keep coverage of any convection limited in our area. Overnight lows will be seasonally mild, in the upper 60s, while the aforementioned surface pressure falls to our west will help keep surface winds relatively breezy overnight. Smoke from the dozens of wildfires across the western CONUS will keep skies hazy and produce another colorful sunset later this evening. LONG TERM... Widely scattered convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday evening, with the highest coverage/best rain chances extending from the northern portions of the South Plains and Rolling plains northward through the Panhandles. Despite the passage of a shortwave trough aloft, recent guidance has actually trended downward on the coverage and intensity of precip Thursday evening and overnight. Perhaps due to overall weak levels of forcing and lack of a low-level focus outside of orographic lift over in NM. Still, given the forecast MLCAPES around 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWATS up around 1.5 to 2.0 inches, we should see some potential for robust updraft/downdrafts capable of producing wet microbursts with perhaps marginally severe wind gusts. Forecast storm motion is under 15 kts, and the wet-bulb freezing level is relatively high resulting in a deep warm cloud layer, so locally heavy rainfall will be a threat. Activity should gradually wane and shift to the east Thursday night into early Friday. Subtle height rises Friday in the wake of the passing trough may limit any local t-storm development, and the next round of diurnal development in the higher terrain of NM will be slow to trek across the NM Plains and cross the TX border; perhaps by late Friday evening we'll see some decaying activity propagate across central and northern portions of the forecast area. Saturday still appears to be mainly on the quiet side, with the 4- corners upper-ridge exerting a little more influence. Although it is possible that scattered t-storm activity developing in NM during the afternoon could make a run at our western counties Saturday evening. As the upper ridge continues to amplify and elongate meridionally Sunday, a shortwave and attendant cold front will dive south through the High Plains. While the front is not expected to arrive into our area until Monday, scattered convection developing across nrn NM, srn CO and srn KS Sunday afternoon may eventually spill into our area Sunday evening or Sunday night. At this time, it appears the best, and most widespread rain potential for the forecast area will be on Monday and Monday night as lift is temporarily coupled along the frontal zone and trough aloft. Rain chances should decrease from north to south on Tuesday. Guidance begins to diverge on the fate of the shortwave beyond Monday as the upper-level ridge is expected to broaden across the central Rockies into the nrn and central Plains, and trap whatever energy remains to the south of the ridging. We should see some degree of deep-layer easterly flow in this pattern which generally brings slightly cooler than usual temperatures but low rain chances unless a stronger depiction of the retrograding trough seen in some model runs pans out. High temperatures, after being in the lower to mid 90s through the weekend - pretty close to average - should be mainly in the 80s to low 90s Monday through next Wednesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 55/33/10