103 FXUS62 KRAH 140705 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Though mid-level heights decrease ever so slightly today (20 meter H5 decrease), strong upper level ridging centered over the western Atlantic and Bermuda high pressure will remain the principle weather features across the Carolinas. Sheared vorticity energy associated with the weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing the mid- Atlantic states and NE US could quite possibly enhance coverage slightly across the northern Piedmont during the afternoon and evening. Otherwise expect be another day of diurnally driven isolated to widely scattered convection. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Persistence is the name of the game as Bermuda high pressure remains in control. With no other discernible forcing mechanisms, strong daytime heating within the moist and unstable airmass will continue to fuel isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. Those who are fortunate enough to be under these storms will get some relief from the summer heat and humidity as afternoon highs top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... The persistent weather pattern will largely continue through the weekend and into early next week. Relatively high pressure aloft will sit over the Carolinas through at least Saturday while a sheared out upper trough sits to the northwest (extending from the Northeast to the mid-MS Valley). This trough will slowly amplify and move eastward through the weekend, possibly into the mid-Atlantic late weekend/early next week. Similarly at the surface, high pressure will sit just off the Carolina coast through Friday before dissipating and getting absorbed into the larger Bermuda. However the latter will continue ridging westward into the Southeast US through the weekend. A piedmont/lee trough will be a daily feature over central NC, providing a focus for diurnally-driven convective activity (primarily over the foothills and Piedmont). A cold front will approach from the northwest as the upper trough moves into the region. There is still too much uncertainty with respect to when/if the front will make it into the area. If it does, it would be the best shot for an airmass change in the extended forecast period. Otherwise the warm, humid weather will persist. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s will persist through Saturday, with the possibility of a slight downward trend thereafter. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions are expected for most locations tonight, with IFR- MVFR stratus/VIS possible near KFAY. Conditions will quickly improve across the region Wed morning, then Iso/Sct SHRA/TSRA will develop in the afternoon and early evening. Outlook: Stratus will likely develop each morning, with SHRA/TSRA developing in the afternoon-evening through Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...CBL/JJT