278 FXUS61 KRLX 132350 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 750 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Weak boundary passage overnight then greater chances for shower and storms for Wednesday. High pressure builds in by Thursday, before unsettled weather returns on Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM Tuesday... Some minor adjustments have been made to PoPs to focus higher values over our western counties closer to greatest forcing late this afternoon and evening, and to reduce PoPs over our eastern counties. As of 200 PM Tuesday... For this afternoon and evening, CAPE and bulk shear are weak but we still could see a strong to severe isolated storm which is why the area has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the area with the main threat being damaging wind. With PWAT values near the 2 inch range, anomalously high for this time of year, along with weak flow, possible training of storms could occur. WPC has issued the marginal risk for excessive rainfall over the entire forecast area into tonight when activity should be limited. Areas susceptible to heavy downpours will be low lying and poor drainage areas. A weak frontal boundary slides across the area with its parent upper level trough through the overnight. This will promote shower chances and a possible storm into and through the morning. Thereafter, the area will be just under a general threat for diurnal summertime type convection through the afternoon and evening. Thinking less cloud and shower coverage for tomorrow after frontal passage since high pressure will build in from the southeast and raise heights through Wednesday. Temperatures will be right around average for tomorrow, but depending on how fast or widespread cloud breaks will be, will determine whether daytime highs exceed forecast values by a degree or two. Went with guidance as of now since I had lower confidence in cloud dispersion. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 304 PM Tuesday... Any scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining across the area Wednesday evening should dissipate shortly after sunset, with rather tranquil conditions for the region during the day Thursday as high pressure across the southeast will be in control. There could be a few highly isolated showers or storms across the far southern portion of the region and the mountains, but this will be the exception, not the rule. High temperatures Thursday will be slightly above normal, with upper 80s to near 90 across the lowlands, with 70s across the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 304 PM Tuesday... The long term period begins with a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent with its progression, with the chance for scattered showers and storms beginning Friday afternoon across the northwest portions of the area. The main question continues to be with the timing of the front moving through the region. The front will tend to slow, possibly stall, across the region throughout the weekend, which will favor a continued chance for scattered showers and storms on both Saturday and Sunday. Shower/storm chances begin to diminish on Monday, especially across areas further north, with the far southern portions of the region holding on to the greatest chance for precipitation as the front continues to slowly exit the region. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the period, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 across the lowlands. The weekend should see a return to near seasonable temperatures, with a slow warmup to start the new work week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 750 PM Tuesday... A weak front will work eastward across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. With this front in the area, a shower will be possible at any point overnight, with a thunderstorm becoming more likely late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. The front should also keep a light breeze going for most of the night which will help keep fog at bay. However, an MVFR stratocu deck is expected to develop late tonight and hang around into Wednesday morning before lifting to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A thunderstorm may impact a TAF site or two early this evening. Fog could become more prevalent than forecast, especially at EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/14/21 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR forecast, but brief IFR possible in showers/thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings, most likely Friday and Saturday, and then follow-up overnight and early morning fog. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ/04 NEAR TERM...ABE/JZ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ABE