966 FXUS62 KFFC 122333 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 733 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021 ...00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... As the short term period begins, an upper level low remains stalled over the Midwest, blocked by the Bermuda High positioned off the mid- Atlantic coast. Ahead of the upper low, southwesterly flow aloft remains over the region. Meanwhile, southerly flow has set up at the low levels on the backside of the Bermuda High. As the high remains in place and the upper low opens and slowly lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes overnight and Tuesday, this setup will persist and allow for the continued advection of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over north and central Georgia. Dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s through the period, along with precipitable water values between 1.7-2.0 inches. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of west and north Georgia, primarily in association with a disturbance traversing the upper level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are also moving into central Georgia as the sea breeze pushes further inland. At this time likely PoPs have been maintained for west and north Georgia and chance PoPs for east and central Georgia. Considering the high PWAT values, any convection will once again produce heavy rainfall. In spite of faster boundary layer winds leading to quicker storm motion, stronger storms training over the same areas could produce localized flooding concerns. The abundant atmospheric moisture and warm temperatures are also contributing to SBCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. With 10-15 kts of low-level wind shear and marginal mid-level lapse rates, an organized threat for severe weather is not expected. However, isolated storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. It is possible to see another low stratus deck develop overnight and persist through the early morning hours on Tuesday, especially in areas that observe heavy rain this evening. After temperatures warm and the stratus layer lifts and dissipates, diurnally driven convection will develop. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are thus expected across the forecast area once again tomorrow afternoon. With deep moisture and increased cloud cover, there will be a smaller diurnal spread of temperatures, with high temperatures expected to be slightly cooler than average and overnight lows slightly warmer than average. King LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... To avoid a redundant, monotonous, and repetitive monologue regarding the long term forecast, the following discussion will be provided through a series of haikus... Extended forecast: It's warm and wet in Georgia, with no end in sight. The forecast remains unchanging, uneventful, steady everyday. Insignificant synoptic influences planned for the Southeast. With no real focus, expect a rinse and repeat diurnal forecast. Abundant moisture, precipitable water close to two inches. High temps near ninety, forty to sixty percent chance of rain each day. Scattered thunderstorms forecast each afternoon with gusts and heavy rain. Most storms should be weak, but isolated severe cannot be ruled out. Also possible is isolated flooding with persistent rains. A mid-level ridge will begin to be displaced by a trough next week. How far the trough sinks is yet to be determined. Only time will tell. Thiem && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... A large area of shra/tsra continues north toward ATL/AHN sites through 01-02z, diminishing thereafter. Current mainly VFR cigs will likely lower toward MVFR and IFR after 09-10z, particularly at ATL/AHN sites. Improvement toward VFR cigs is expected by 16-18z with sct shra/tsra coverage also increasing through the afternoon. Winds will be largely SW at 4-6kts outside of tsra this evening before becoming more vrb overnight and light. SW winds are expected again on Tuesday at 4-8kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on morning cigs wind direction. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 87 69 89 / 40 60 40 50 Atlanta 70 86 70 88 / 60 60 40 50 Blairsville 64 78 64 82 / 50 70 60 60 Cartersville 69 85 68 88 / 50 60 50 50 Columbus 70 89 70 92 / 50 50 30 50 Gainesville 68 83 68 87 / 50 60 50 50 Macon 70 90 70 92 / 60 50 30 50 Rome 70 86 69 89 / 50 70 50 50 Peachtree City 69 86 68 89 / 60 60 40 50 Vidalia 71 90 71 90 / 40 40 30 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...RW