011 
FXUS64 KTSA 120439
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Prevailing MVFR and locally IFR ceilings are expected to develop 
across the AR terminals in the next few hours, persisting into 
late morning tomorrow. Diurnal shower activity should be lower in 
coverage and farther east than seen today, and the previous VCSH 
mention at the AR sites continues to look good to address the 
potential. Expect light winds and a quick decrease in low cloud
cover into the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

East of the dominant western CONUS ridge, a deep shortwave trough
is carved out over the central part of the country. A PV max was
embedded within the trough and was over northern MO. Cooler temps
aloft combined with July insolation lead to bands of showers and
isolated lightning strikes thru the afternoon. This activity
should wane as we lose daytime heating this evening. Some tweaks
were made to the early evening PoPs, otherwise the forecast was
largely left intact. Expect below average overnight lows tonight
in the 60s.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 614 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widely scattered showers will persist for an hour or two after
issuance with briefly reduced visibility and potential for
localized wind shifts and gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Signal
remains for MVFR ceilings and/or vsbys to develop later tonight
mainly across NW AR, and continue into early Monday morning.
Additional isolated showers expected to impact mainly NW AR Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 150 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Showers have developed across parts of E OK and NW AR mainly 
along the north of the Hwy 412 corridor. These showers are thanks 
to a nearby upper low spinning away across central MO. As we 
continue to heat up and destabilize in between the showers, expect
a few storms to develop. One thing to look out for today (and 
tends to be common with a nearby upper low) would be the potential
for brief funnels to develop within stronger updraft cores where 
stretching of vorticity can be maximized. We don’t expect any of
these funnels to reach the ground. Any activity that develops 
will gradually weaken around and after sun set. The main threats 
for today will be locally heavy, brief downpours and occasional 
cloud-to-ground lightning. A similar set up for showers and 
isolated thunderstorms will persist into tomorrow afternoon and 
before slowly exiting Tuesday afternoon/evening with PoPs slowly 
migrating eastward each day. 

We will see a break in the action on Wednesday with windy and 
humid conditions in full swing. These elevated winds are in 
response to the next storm system expected to arrive Thursday. 
There are still some discrepancies across much of the guidance 
when it comes to the timing but we do expect this system to dip 
into at least parts of the area for Thursday, with more of the 
area seeing chances for showers and storms as we move into the 
weekend. A mid level jet will tend to be near stationary over the 
area Thursday into Friday and will help to bring a few waves of 
precipitation. Confidence is high in shower/storm development but 
timing remains highly uncertain.

Snider

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....22