149 FXUS61 KBTV 111142 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 742 AM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected once again today across the entire North Country with high pressure over the area. High temperatures will be right around seasonal normals with clouds gradually increasing throughout the day. Precipitation chances will increase tonight and Monday, especially across central and southern Vermont and parts of the northern Adirondacks of New York. This area will see the highest rainfall amounts with very little rain expected over the far northern portions of northern New York and Vermont. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 742 AM EDT Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with just some minor tweaks. Fog is all but gone and we are getting a bit more mid and high level moisture moving in. So have tweaked sky and weather grids to account for these ideas. Otherwise rest of forecast remains untouched. Previous Discussion... One more very nice day is expected across the North Country today with high pressure starting over the area. This feature will be moving eastward as the day wears on as a warm front begins to move northeast towards the region tonight and Monday. Clouds, mainly mid and high level, will gradually be on the increase today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A sharp gradient of precipitation will develop over the area tonight and Monday. Flow aloft is mainly west to east and this will limit the northward extent of the precipitation associated with the approaching warm front. Looking at only a slight chance of showers over the far northern portions of New York and Vermont (right along the international border) and then increasing chances as one heads south. At this time central and southern Vermont and the southern portions of the northern Adirondacks have the highest probabilities of precipitation, mainly in the likely to categorical ranges. Precipitation amounts will follow suit with the sharp precipitation gradient. Expect less than a tenth of an inch over the northern third of New York and Vermont, but around an inch over south central Vermont. Highest amounts look to be just south of our area, mainly Bennington/Windham counties and points south. During the late morning and afternoon hours the precipitation shield will move south and precipitation will gradually come to an end as this happens. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s and highs on Monday will range from around 70 degrees south to around 80 north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Deeper southwest return flow commences by Monday night on the western side of amplified western Atlantic ridge. As such, the sharp moisture gradient partially responsible for heavier rainfall to our south Sunday night/Monday will pivot and lift northeast into the region as PWATS climb into the 1.5 to 2 inch range by Tuesday afternoon. Boundary layer instability will largely be confined to northern NY however, and I've maintained continuity with highest PoPs confined to this area on Tuesday before spreading slightly eastward into Vermont toward evening. Far eastern VT counties will likely remain dry through Tuesday. Lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid 60s, then upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday maxes. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...Areal coverage of showers/isolated storms wanes Tuesday night with loss of insolation, then a more active day still looks reasonable for Wednesday as combination of instability, modest 0-6 km shear and approach of a weak mid- level shortwave trough should be enough to drive more robust convective potential. Given the high PWAT air, locally heavy rainfall also looks plausible. It will trend more summery and humid with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Thereafter, chances of scattered showers and storms continues through the remainder of the week as the area remains in moist southwesterly flow aloft on the northern side of aforementioned western Atlantic ridge. Wednesday night into Thursday will see somewhat less coverage of precipitation in the wake of Wednesday's shortwave trough passage, after which PoP values climb slightly for Friday, then more so by next Saturday with the potential for another shortwave passage. Little airmass change is expected (typical during mid-summer) with daily highs generally ranging through the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s to around 70 under fairly muggy dewpoints. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...Expect IFR to VLIFR conditions at KMPV until 14z due to low clouds and fog. After 14z all locations will be VFR with mainly mid and high level clouds moving in and no precipitation. Conditions will change after 04z as ceilings begin to lower and precipitation begins to move into the region. There will be a sharp gradient of precipitation with little over northern New York and Vermont, but steadier precipitation over central and southern Vermont. This will help lower ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR category at KRUT and KMPV, but VFR ceilings and visibilities elsewhere. Winds will be 10 knots or less through the period. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Evenson