062 FXUS63 KOAX 080447 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1147 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Early afternoon analysis showed the cold front responsible for earlier showers and storms off to the south and east now from northeast Kansas into southern and eastern Iowa. A few light showers/drizzle lingered behind said front, with plenty of cloud cover across the area keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s as of 3 PM. For tonight into Thursday, surface low pressure will advance eastward out of Wyoming, roughly along the NE/SD border with a warm front extending eastward. A shortwave will slide southeastward while a low level jet ramps up and points into the front and helps sustain an MCS that could move into far northern portions of the forecast area around 12Z, give or take a couple hours. By then, it should be very much in a weakening phase, but can't rule out some gusty winds wherever it moves through. A very similar situation looks to pan out Thursday night into Friday with another shortwave/low level jet/warm air advection combination bringing an MCS through almost the same area. This will likely reinforce the warm front somewhere in the area, but still a fair amount of spread on where this is. Meanwhile, southerly flow will be bringing in plenty of warm, humid air as temperatures climb into the 90s and dewpoints get to near 70. As such, expect plenty of instability in the area, though model soundings show a stout cap/elevated mixed layer in place through the afternoon. In addition, with ongoing warm air advection- related showers and storms likely across Iowa, debris clouds could end up limit heating/instability a bit, depending where and how widespread they are. That all said, if something were to get going right along the boundary by late afternoon/evening as the low level jet ramps up, shear profiles would suggest the potential for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. What seems more likely is that initiation will hold off until a stronger mid- level trough starts moving into western/central Nebraska during the evening. Eventually would expect an MCS to form which would bring damaging wind threat along with potentially some locally heavy rain given precipitable water values near 1.75". Showers and a few storms will likely linger Saturday as we remain under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft. This will keep us much cooler, as highs will likely struggle to get out of the 70s (much like today). Surface high pressure will build in Sunday with at least some surface ridging lingering into the early part of the new week keeping us dry. Daily high temperatures will also be on a gradual climb back to 90 by Tuesday as southerly flow starts to ramp up on the back side of the high. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 7 2021 Still a small signal for threat of haze or fog at KOMA or KLNK... though confidence is low. Have stuck with 6SM beginning at 12Z at both. Have removed the MVFR cigs at OMA at sunrise, but there's certainly a lot of cig variability there, so watch for updates. Expect VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. There is a small chance of POPS at KOFK from 14 to 16Z Thursday... but less than 30% so kept it out of TAF. Another small chance of POPs around and after 06Z for KOFK and KOMA. Again, they're just too small to necessitate at PROB30 at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Nicolaisen