305 FXUS63 KMQT 062250 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 650 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021 Rain showers have made their way into parts of the west before noon this morning and have progressed eastward into parts of the north- central. These showers are tied to an upstream shortwave over the Dakotas and surface cold front. Moisture convergence ahead of it in proximity to a stalled frontal boundary to our south and right jet entrance region will allow for these rain showers spread over the area as they continue progressing eastward this afternoon and tonight. With almost all of the instability to our south, fgen appears to be the primary driver, and could be strong enough to support a good soaking. Guidance varies through tomorrow morning, but generally 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain is expected across the south half of Upper Michigan with a progressive gradient northward toward the Lake Superior lakeshore. Tomorrow the rain will persist across the south and parts of the east. With the passage of the cold front, cooler temps are expected. Overnight lows tonight should be in the upper 40s in the interior west, mid 50s in the far south, and near 50F elsewhere; highs tomorrow should largely be in the 60s, with some high 50s possible near the immediate Lake Superior lakeshore. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 432 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021 Models suggest that the pattern will amplify slightly through the week as ridging builds over the western CONUS into western Canada with downstream troughing into eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and the northeast U.S. After a cool down into Thursday, temps will rebound near seasonal averages by the end of the week/weekend. Wednesday night, rain chances linger over the southeast in closer proximity to the better 850-700 mb fgen as a shortwave moves through the northern Great Lakes. Thursday, high pressure and cool dry air will dominate the area with light northeast winds. highs will only range from the mid 60s near Lake Superior to the lower 70s south. Friday-Sunday, Model/ensemble trends keep the northern plains shortwave and developing mid level low far enough south to minimize rain potential with only slight chance over the far south at most. Temps will rebound to near seasonal normals for the late week period. Monday-Tuesday, Models/ensembles indicate rex block breaking down with the mid level low lifting northeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley or Western Great Lakes. This remnant low/shortwave could bring some rain back into the fcst area. Confidence is still limited given amount of model variability and ensemble spread. The coverage of showers could be enhanced by diurnal heating/instability, especially by Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 650 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021 Rain showers are expected to spread over Upper Michigan this afternoon. Impacts are most likely expected at KIWD and KSAW, where some moderate rain may reduce visibilities into this evening. Guidance is a little mixed on ceilings falling to IFR, so bottomed ceilings at low end MVFR with gradual improvement Wed morning. KCMX is expected to remain VFR. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021 Northerly to northeasterly winds up to near 20 knots are expected to persist this afternoon and evening. Tonight, northeasterly winds across the lake will begin increasing to 20-25 knot range and begin settling down by afternoon when a high pressure moves over the lake. Under this high, winds should remain light through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...JP