243 
FXUS64 KLUB 061940 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Shower coverage early this afternoon is minimal compared to past 
days, with only a few point showers popping up thus far. As 
evidenced by the low clouds and fog this morning, the near-surface 
airmass remains very moist, with surface dewpoints hovering in the 
mid to upper 60s again this afternoon and PWATs in the 1.3"-1.5" 
range. Regarding the synoptic setup, the upper level ridge is 
currently centered near Las Vegas, NV with a nearly stationary 
midlevel cyclone over South Texas. Further north, an upper level 
trough and its associated moisture can be seen on water vapor 
imagery transiting around the northeastern edge of the upper high. 
This setup places the CWA under generally meridional flow aloft with 
light easterly surface flow maintaining low level moisture. At the 
surface this afternoon, a few areas of enhanced convergence can be 
seen on satellite imagery manifesting as areas of thicker cumulus. 
Chances for showers will be maximized in these regions this 
afternoon into the evening. However, chances for precipitation 
overall remain quite low through the afternoon, as little forcing 
for ascent exists outside these localized areas of weak convergence 
despite a moist and weakly capped atmosphere. 

Further to our north, a surface trough has developed in response to 
the aforementioned upper trough across the central and northern 
Great Plains. Lift associated with this feature has led to 
thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary stretching from 
northeastern NM to central NE. This front and its associated 
convection is progged to advance slowly southward, but guidance 
slows the front as it approaches the northern CWA border. It is 
certainly plausible that there may be areas of semi-organized 
convection moving through southeastern CO into the OK/northern TX 
Panhandles during the early morning hours. However, at this time it 
appears that we will have enough of a cap in place to prevent 
widespread convection locally. Furthermore, the lack of a 
significant westerly component to the upper flow (in fact, 500mb 
flow is progged to be nearly northeasterly) makes it unlikely that 
the upstream convection will be able to move efficiently into our 
area. Combined with the expected slowing of the frontal boundary 
towards daybreak, PoPs were kept highest in the southern Panhandle 
and northwestern South Plains, with minimal PoPs elsewhere. 

As the surface boundary will likely remain north of the CWA, 
temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm slightly due to a 
small increase in 500mb heights as the upper ridge pushes slowly 
eastward. Continued moist low levels will result in limited chances 
for showers and thunderstorms persisting on Wednesday afternoon. 
With the building upper ridge, however, precipitation coverage will 
likely be limited, although the potential will exist for a few brief 
downpours. /DWK

.LONG TERM... Already low thunderstorm chances will further 
shrink Wednesday night as the wave mentioned above edges further 
to the east of the area. Shower chances will continue diminishing 
into early Thursday as upper level high pressure expands across 
the southwest with a ridge axis east across the Panhandle and 
South Plains. None-the-less, various convective-allowing forecast 
solutions generate isolated storms at least Wednesday evening and 
we have added a low mention of thunder for much of the area for 
this limited time frame. 

Thursday through Friday and into Saturday will see dominance of the 
upper level high pressure ridge. Although the ridge center will 
be west of our area, expansive heights and warm air aloft are 
expected to overspread the Texas South Plains region. This should 
lead to a subsident airmass with slightly warmer temperatures but 
also lingering high surface dewpoints and mugginess. The next 
upper level wave that will cross out of the Pacific Northwest 
across the northern Rockies will dig into the central plains over 
the weekend and appears capable of shoving another surface frontal
boundary southward towards the area by the mid weekend. Slight 
temperature drops are expected Sunday into early next week as it 
appears deep moisture may also entrain northeast from northern 
Mexico into the area leading to at least low thunderstorm chances.
RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/05