443 FXUS64 KTSA 051741 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period. SCT to occasionally BKN cu have broken out across E OK and NW AR at our TAF sites thanks to mid level moisture and warming temperatures. Light winds are also continuing across the area thanks to a broad area of surface high pressure. The forecast looks pretty status quo with cumulus clouds gradually fading this evening with light winds persisting through the end of the period. Tomorrow morning will be clear to mostly clear for all sites with cumulus starting to bubble up once again at all sites by the end of the TAF period. For the sake of TAF simplicity, opted to keep SKC from this evening through the end of the TAF for our NW AR TAF sites. Cumulus will likely redevelop by late tomorrow morning. Snider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 932 AM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... Air quality across NE OK, especially for Tulsa and locations immediately to the north, remains unhealthy for sensitive groups at this time. The latest data shows the AQI for Tulsa sitting at 155 which is still very high. This, however, is an improvement from overnight where the AQI was as high as 259 at 1AM. That observation is close to what parts of LA see on any given morning. The reasons for such poor air quality this morning are... 1. Unfortunately, fireworks are very bad for air quality in general :( 2. A low level inversion which trapped smoke near the surface all night and this morning. 3. Very light to calm winds which helped smoke and particulate matter hang in the air. 4. Particulate matter (PM) can be very small and may take a while for it to reach the ground if the wind is very light to calm and all PM relies on is gravity to fall. With that said, air quality is slowly improving and will continue to improve through the rest of the morning and afternoon as vertical mixing becomes deeper and winds increase some. We are still within the western periphery of a broad high pressure thus winds will remain light today with an abundance of sunshine expected. Expect another day with temperatures a tad below normal ranging from the upper 80s to 90. In terms of the forecast, we are still trending well overall with only a few minor tweaks needed. An update to the forecast will be issued shortly. Snider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 10 20 FSM 69 93 73 93 / 0 0 10 30 MLC 66 91 70 91 / 0 10 10 30 BVO 64 91 67 90 / 0 0 10 30 FYV 62 89 67 90 / 0 0 10 30 BYV 66 89 69 89 / 0 0 10 30 MKO 67 89 70 89 / 0 0 10 20 MIO 66 90 69 90 / 0 0 10 20 F10 66 90 70 89 / 0 0 10 20 HHW 70 91 71 91 / 0 10 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....21