104 FXUS64 KHGX 042100 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021 .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow/Monday Night]... Daytime heating and all the various outflows have helped to produce some scattered showers/thunderstorms across the Houston metro this afternoon. Even with this development (that could persist into the early evening) will be expecting the drier air and loss of heating to put an end to things just after sunset. Temperatures this even- ing around fireworks times will be in the lower 80s/upper 70s with generally light/variable winds. Overnight lows will be in the mid/ lower 70s inland...upper 70s/around 80 at the immediate the coast. Of some concern for the overnight hours will be the aforementioned drier (stable) air and light winds. SREF guidance is still hinting at the possibility of patchy fog through early tomorrow morning... and given the trends this morning inclined to agree and have added this mention in the WX grids. As for tomorrow, we'll be keeping with the mainly diurnal patterns of late. Elevated PWs (progged at 2.3 inches) over the W/SW should spread back into the rest of the CWA tomorrow. This along with day time heating, sea/baybreeze development and additional speed maxes from the NW will help keep chance to likely POPs in for SE TX tom- orrow morning/afternoon. Progs of broad diffluence aloft across the area also notable for chances of locally heavy rains with any dev- elopment. Highs tomorrow should range from the upper 80s/lower 90s. Rains likely ending once again after sunset tomorrow, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. 41 && .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]... Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast each day as a broad mid/upper level low across the state early in the period transitions into a northeast to southwest oriented shear axis. Still looks like possible height rises from the east toward the end of the week and on into next weekend could result in some drying (lowering precipitable water values) resulting in decreasing rain chances. But before that happens, anticipate late night through early morning showers and possible thunderstorms near the coastal counties and offshore followed by showers and thunderstorms further inland mainly associated with daytime heating as each day progresses. Localized heavy rainfall will continue to be possible, especially in association with the stronger and slower moving storms or where any training sets up. Temperatures should continue to end up slightly below normal to near normal with the extra clouds and rains in place. If the decreasing rain chance trend pans out toward the end of the week and on into next weekend, look for an increase in temperatures. 42 && .MARINE... Light winds and low seas are generally expected to continue through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Boaters should anticipate periods of unsettled weather...mainly in the late night and morning hours...with elevated shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds and seas can be much higher in and near storms. Onshore flow strengthens and seas build toward the middle through end of the week. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/ AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... Drier air currently situated over the NE portions of the CWA could help to keep convective development limited or delayed until later this afternoon for our inland sites along I-45. Deeper moisture to the west and over the coastal waters could start nudging back into these areas as we move forward in time. Also, will have to take in to account possible interactions with the sea and bay-breezes with outflows through this evening. Have kept with just the mentions of VCTS (with some timing adjustments) for the rest of today...adding TEMPO groups if/as activity forms. SREF guidance also hinting that we'll see some patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities with fog/ low cloud development overnight into early tomorrow morning. Deep- ening onshore winds/moisture will keep the mention of VCSH/VCTS in the forecast for tomorrow. VFR conditions to prevail where showers and storms are not. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 90 74 89 73 / 50 60 40 70 30 Houston (IAH) 75 91 76 89 75 / 50 70 40 80 50 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 79 88 79 / 60 50 50 70 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$