672 
FXUS63 KEAX 042044
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2021

Key Messages...

- Pleasant evening ahead for any Fourth of July festivities.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday Night into Wednesday 
  with a frontal boundary passage. 

Detailed Discussion...

Temperatures this evening will be quite pleasant for any outdoor 
activities. Readings will fall from the mid and upper 80s into the 
upper 70s to low 80s by 9pm under mostly clear skies and light 
winds. Models have backed off some on low-level inversion 
strength, but may still see some smoky haze linger into the 
overnight hours from evening fireworks activity.

A nice morning to start the next workweek with lows in the mid to
upper 60s tomorrow morning before climbing into the upper 80s to 
lower 90s by afternoon. Moisture will be slow to return as surface
high shifts just slightly to the southeast and low-level flow 
remains rather weak. Moisture return will continue to struggle 
Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will be dropping out of the 
northwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday. We should see enough 
of a return, however, to get scattered showers and thunderstorms 
developing along the front as it pushes into the area. Right now, 
limited instability and forcing will keep severe threat and flash 
flood risk low. 

Temperatures will cool slightly behind the front before returning to 
the 90s by Friday. Precipitation chances will also return late 
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave trough traverses the Northern 
Plains. Longer range solutions differ in the placement of the 
surface low and the upper level trough, which would impact 
precipitation chances and the overall severe threat. 


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2021

High pressure will shift eastwards today with winds becoming more
southerly with time but remaining below 12kts. Cu field of 4-7kft
will dissipate with loss of heating with generally clear skies
overnight. A near-surface inversion tonight may result in some
hazy conditions and a decrease in visibility due to area 
fireworks activity. There is some uncertainty as to how strong or
deep this inversion will, but will likely see some dip in 
visibility between 02-06Z at some of the terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PietrychaP
Aviation...PietrychaP