788 
FXUS63 KIND 032224
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
624 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

The period will include central Indiana's transition from the 
current placid milder/drier respite...back to a more typical 
hot/humid mid-summer pattern. A weakening upper-level ridge will 
continue to slowly build into the Mid-West, which will keep the 
main flow of Gulf moisture cut off well to our south. As the 
associated ridge of weak surface high pressure gradually slides 
from the lower Missouri Valley to the Tennessee Valley, light 
northwesterly breezes this afternoon will back to a generally 
light westerly wind this evening. The flow will bring moderate 
humidity by early Sunday before July heat returns for Independence
Day afternoon.

PWAT values will also rebound to slightly better than seasonable 
levels with 1.2-1.5" spreading across the region by the end of the 
period. While surface dewpoints will also return to the mid to
upper 60s by noon Sunday...lack of forcing will keep the region 
free of organized precipitation. While mostly clear skies will 
prevail for most of the next 36 hours, FEW/SCT diurnal cumulus are
possible Sunday afternoon, especially over southeastern counties 
where dewpoints will be nearing 70F. While a lone shower cannot be
ruled out south/east of Muncie in the late day hours Sunday, 
decided confidence too low to include even slight chance POPs.

Temperatures will drop to the low to mid 60s tonight...before 
climbing to near 90F on Independence Day...with upper 60s 
expected late Sunday night.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

High pressure will be in place over central Indiana as the long term 
begins. Upper ridging flattens a bit but then begins to build again, 
and a surface front is stalled out well north of the area, trying to 
make it south but running up again the persistence of the ridge. 
Thus, with lack of any decent forcing over the area during that 
time, will go with a dry forecast. Not ruling out pop up type 
convection, but with subsidence over the area think coverage would 
be small should anything occur.

By Wednesday, though, the front could start to sink south into the 
area, and an upper shortwave swings southeast on northwest flow as 
the upper ridge flattens and shift more off to the east. Some 
differences in timing of the shortwave and the strength/progression 
of the front prompted keeping Pops in the chance category. Will keep 
high chances going Wednesday through Thursday with the front moving 
through, but by Thursday night models are in fairly good agreement 
on the front sinking south as wel.l as weakening, and some ridging 
moving back through aloft. This should bring dry conditions in to 
end the work week. Model solutions still advertise a stronger system 
arriving for the weekend, so will keep chances PoPs going Friday 
night through Saturday. The stalling of the front mid week and the 
upper ridging look like they will keep any residual moisture from 
tropical system leftovers south and east of central Indiana.

With precipitable water values a little elevated for this time of 
year but not a lot with the mid week system, don't expect to see a 
lot of flooding problems. Potential exception would be if the front 
could completely stall out and waves move along it, and that doesn't 
look likely at this time.

Temperatures will be above normal to start the period, and remain 
there through Wednesday, cooling to near or just below normal 
Thursday with the frontal passage, and then coming back to normal.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

IMPACTS:
- VFR conditions continue through this TAF period.
- Winds will be light and variable.

DISCUSSION: 

VFR conditions are expected to persist this TAF period as strong 
high pressure in place over MO and IL slowly slides east toward 
Indiana through the forecast period. Forecast soundings and Time 
heights remain dry through the period as subsidence remains in 
place. GOES16 fails to show much in the way of cloud cover through 
the region. With the surface high expected to be located over the 
forecast area...light and variable winds will be expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AGM
Long Term...CP
Aviation...JP