203 FXUS62 KCHS 020002 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 802 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach on Friday, then become stationary over or near our area through early next week. Elsa could bring impacts to the region towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 8 PM: Regional radar composite showed a cluster of showers generally over the lower Savannah River, drifting to the north. This activity should continue over the next hour or two, then coverage across the CWA should remain very limited through the rest of the night. Light SW winds and periods of mid-level ceilings should limit any fog formation. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 70s. Previous Discussion: The primary driver for convection this afternoon has been a progressive sea breeze pushing steadily inland. Activity should quickly wane this evening due to a combination of the sea breeze pushing inland of the forecast area and loss of daytime heating. Later tonight a shortwave moving up from the south will bring an increase in showers and tstms over the coastal waters and eventually eastern portions of the Charleston Tri-County area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong trough moving over the East Coast. The trough is unseasonably strong, 2-3 standard deviations below normal per NAEFS. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Ahead of the front will be a deep plume of moisture. PWATs are forecasted to reach 2-2.25" during the afternoon, which is 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Even the mean integrated WV transport from the WSW is 2-3 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. The abundant moisture combined with lift from the aforementioned features will cause a band of showers and thunderstorms to move from northwest to southeast across our area during the day. All of the synoptic models and the CAMS are in good agreement, showing QPF of at least 1" across our area, with amounts up to 2 inches for the Charleston Tri-County. There are even hints from the HREF that some parts of the Tri-County could exceed 3" of rainfall. This seems reasonable with the embedded thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should be moving, but there is concerns for backbuilding and training. If so, then minor flooding is a concern for Charleston along with the typical flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas in the rest of our area. Instability is not impressive given all of the moisture, so the overall severe risk is low. The main band of showers and thunderstorms should move offshore by after midnight, with scattered convection persisting afterwards as the front slowly moves through our area. Temperatures will be near normal. Saturday and Sunday: An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will be over the East Coast on Saturday, then lift northeastward on Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will transition to a stationary front, where it will remain over or just to the south of our GA counties on Saturday, then shift further to the south and away from our area on Sunday. The highest POPS will be across our GA counties each afternoon, with Saturday being the wetter of the two days for them. It may be entirely dry for our SC counties both days. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A stationary front will be south of our area Sunday night into Monday, then dissipate on Tuesday. Elsa could bring impacts to our region towards the middle of next week. However, this will all depend on the track provided by the NHC. For now, our forecast for the middle of next week is looking wet. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prior to the 0Z TAFs: Regional radar detected a cluster of showers drifting north across KSAV, expected to dissipate by 2Z. Steady SW winds and passing low and mid level clouds should limit the formation of fog tonight. Friday, forecast concerns shift to the timing and placement of a pre-frontal broad band of showers and thunderstorms. Based on near-term guidance, showers should begin across the terminals during the early afternoon. HREF thunderstorm probabilities peak during the late afternoon, TAFs will feature TSRA by 21Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring flight restrictions Friday night, with restrictions possibly persisting at KSAV into Saturday. Additional flight restrictions are possible on Tuesday due to showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A robust sea breeze continues along the coast this afternoon. Wind speeds should subside a bit by early evening. S 10-15 kt generally expected across the marine area overnight, though a few 20 kt gusts are possible across the Charleston nearshore waters late due to a tightening gradient. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday, then move through Friday night. The front is expected to become stationary over or near the GA waters Saturday through early next week. Winds/seas are not expected to be high enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories. As for Elsa, it could bring impacts to the region towards the middle of next week. But it's far too early to know for sure and it's all dependent on the NHC track. && .EQUIPMENT... KCLX radar is inoperable due to a lightning strike in the vicinity of the antenna at 1855Z. Technicians are currently assessing the situation. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...NED MARINE...JRL/MS EQUIPMENT...