911 FXUS64 KLUB 300928 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 428 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 .SHORT TERM... Upper level high pressure will continue to slowly drift towards the forecast area today ending up just to our east by this evening. This will bring in slightly drier air at the mid levels however PWAT values will remain near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Plenty of low level moisture will remain in place though and this is leading to some patchy fog this morning mainly across the southwestern Texas Panhandle. After several calls to local sheriff office's this morning it appears that the dense fog is very patchy and not widespread enough to issue a dense fog advisory at this time however trends will be monitored through the morning. For those locations that do not experience fog low clouds will be likely through the morning. For late this morning and into the afternoon southwesterly flow aloft should allow a weak disturbance that is currently located across south central Texas to lift towards us. Instibility values remain modest though still of the tall and thin variety which is more indicative of heavy rain rather than strong storms. The best location to see this shower and isolated thunderstorm activity would be across the South Plains and into the southern Texas Panhandle. This activity should peak with peak heating this afternoon and then slowly diminish tonight. With most locations seeing heavy rainfall the past few days localized flooding/ponding would continue to be the main concern with today's precipitation. Afternoon temperatures should be warmer today as heights aloft begin to increase and with less widespread cloud/shower coverage as opposed to yesterday with temperatures reaching the 80's in most spots. /WCI .LONG TERM... The long-term forecast remains on track with an upper-level high centered near the area by the beginning of the forecast period. This high will help keep the area moistly dry for the day Thursday. Increased thicknesses from the building high will also lead to high temperatures of mid to upper-80s for much of the region, with some areas over the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandles rising into the low-90s. An upper trough will deepen into the Plains from the Great Lakes Region Thursday. As the trough deepens, it will drive a cold front through the area, leading to our next good shot of precipitation Thursday night into Friday. The upper trough will continue to deepen into the day on Friday, placing the FA into a northwesterly flow regime. This will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the region through the weekend as thunderstorms fire off the higher terrain of New Mexico and move into the area. As of now, the severe weather threat looks low for these events; however, with saturated soil conditions and atmospheric water content around 150% of normal, the potential of flooding will exist. Upper-level flow will become northerly by the beginning of next week as the ridge to our west amplifies. This would tend to decrease the chances of precipitation over the area. However, there are some indications that a series of disturbances will rotate around the ridge and move south into the area. With ample moisture over the area, it will not take much lift for precipitation to occur. This is at the end of the forecast period and will most likely change before the event occurs. GKendrick && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/10