255 
FXUS64 KLUB 291956 CCA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SHORT TERM...
18Z upper air analysis indicated a ridge axis nosing its way into 
Texas High Plains this afternoon with a narrow corridor of weakly 
difluent flow to the east of a vorticity lobe digging into the Four 
Corners region. At the surface, frontolysis of a quasi-stationary 
front is underway as convergence is all but negligible based on 
visible satellite imagery, METAR, and West Texas Mesonet data, as 
the bulk of the more-amplified synoptic-scale lifting remains far 
displaced from the region. Scattered rain showers and isolated 
instances of thunder continues across the CWA this afternoon, with a 
particular focus for convection along a weak deformation axis 
detected on satellite and mesonet as moist, isentropic ascent is 
enhanced throughout the 290-310 K theta surfaces. 

Locally heavy rain is expected within the deepest cores for the rest 
of the afternoon, with rain rates potentially reaching 0.75"/hr, 
as observed on a few West Texas Mesonet sites so far today. The 
heavy rainfall from this past weekend has exacerbated the potential
for runoff, so even brief downpours may result in short-fused, 
localized flooding or ponding, especially in low-lying and/or poor
drainage areas. Any thunderstorms that do materialize are expected
to remain disorganized ans well below severe limits as updrafts 
struggle to reach heights high enough to generate lightning. Low 
clouds are forecast to stream into the CWA tonight as the columns 
saturate from persistent warm air advection, which may lead to 
patchy fog in some areas. Isolated rain showers (and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder) will be possible tomorrow afternoon, though 
the orientation of the forecast vertical thermodynamic profiles 
indicates warm/tropical rain processes that will be dampened in 
intensity and coverage as the mid/upper-level anticyclone drifts 
westward.

Sincavage

.LONG TERM...
A few synoptic scale changes are expected to evolve over the next 
week.  As the Hudson Bay low begins to fill and drop into the Great 
Lakes region, the Bermuda high will be split with a dome of high 
pressure situated over Texas by Thursday morning.  Another dome of 
high pressure across SK/MB will be separated from the TX high by a 
col across the central plains.  By next weekend, the TX high will 
build into the desert southwest.

In terms of sensible weather, we may see a few storms around during 
the evening hours on Wednesday. Overall, the drier (but not 
completely dry) weather should persist until a back door front 
eases in on Thursday night. This front should serve as a focal 
point for thunderstorm development migrating from NE to SW into 
Friday morning. As mid-level NWRLY flow returns late Friday into 
Saturday, we should see storms expand across eastern NM and move 
into the CWFA through the weekend. While it remains much too early
to pinpoint locations, there will be potential for heavy rain and
an attendant risk of flooding with the stronger activity. 
Temperature wise, we look to remain below average for this time of
year. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

09/26