966 FXUS64 KAMA 260522 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Cycle Showers and thunderstorms will impact the Amarillo and Guymon TAF sites through around 12Z to 13Z Saturday and again at the Dalhart and Amarillo TAF sites after 00Z Sunday. The storms at the Amarillo TAF site may produce hail between 00Z and 06Z Sunday. VFR conditions are expected except MVFR ceilings and visibilities in and near the thunderstorms. North to northeast winds 5 to 15 knots are expected through 06Z Sunday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ AVIATION...00z TAFS... Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Low chance in the next 6 hours that KAMA or KDHT see a storm, but not impossible. KGUY dealing with a VCTS that should be out of the area in the next hour or two. Cold front on its way through the Panhandles with all sites going north on their winds around 15-20kts. Thunderstorms will be possible to generate along the frontal boundary, but confidence is not very high on the timing, therefore will deal with amendments as needed. Weber PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night... Synopsis: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the combined Panhandles this afternoon through tonight, with additional activity lingering into tomorrow. Some of these storms may become severe with large hail up to 2" in diameter and damaging winds around 75 mph being possible, mainly before 10 PM. There is also some potential for landspout tornadoes before sunset, with favored areas being along a boundary in the northeast and eastern combined Panhandles. There is also a localized flash flood risk today, mainly in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles, and this risk may increase going into tomorrow in the far southern Texas Panhandle along a stalled front. Details: A high amplitude trough will slowly move east across the plains through the weekend. This will help maintain southwest flow at 500mb and 250mb over the combined Panhandles. Embedded perturbations in the flow will promote storm initiation this afternoon, with additional disturbances providing lift this evening, tonight, and again tomorrow. There are also several boundaries noted with the latest surface analysis, one being a stalled front (mainly just a wind shift) in the OK Panhandle and a southward extending surface trough / diffuse dryline, with the best convergence being along a line from Miami to Amarillo. Storm initiation was ongoing near Miami with additional storms forming near the Raton Mesa as of this writing. A remnant outflow boundary is also seeing some enhanced convergence and Tcu near Adrian to Tucumcari. Surface dew points ranged from the upper 50s in the west to upper 60s in the east, with low level backing of winds expected south of the stalled front through the evening. A speed max in the 500mb flow will help enhance speed shear, especially across the northern half of the area. Directional shear will be increasing in eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle as the surface winds become more southeasterly. This will result in 35 to 45 knots of effective shear this afternoon through tonight. MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 2000 to 2500 J/kg by late afternoon (possibly higher in far eastern Texas Panhandle). The 18z special sounding at KAMA did advertise a lot of dry air above 500mb (MLCAPE 1232 J/kg), but increasing surface temperatures and some cooling in the mid levels with the advertised speed max will lead to increased MLCAPE. Hodographs were long, but mostly strait which suggest splitting supercells may be possible. Overall, parameters support multicells with some discrete supercells capable of large hail (2" diameter) and damaging winds (75 mph), possibly becoming more linear in the evening with more of a wind threat. The tornado threat is low due to high LCLs (~2000 meters), but landspout tornadoes are possible before 9 PM given 0-3km CAPE near 100 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. The boundary in the OK Panhandle has the best wind fields to support vertical vorticity, so that area will be watched closely. A mesocyclonic tornado can't completely be ruled out if a storm can remain discrete into the evening when LCLs lower some and 0-1km helicity approaches 100 in the eastern TX Panhandle. Finally, there is a localized flash flood risk with some storms capable of efficient rainfall rates. This is due to PWATs exceeding 90th percentile for most of the area along with storms speeds around 20 to 30 mph. Storms may linger into the night, possibly becoming more elevated as a cold front moves south through the area. Elevated storms may pose a hail risk overnight and into Saturday morning, with enough shear to support elevated supercells. There is also some potential for training storms along the front as it translates south. The main threat for flash flooding will be with the front as it stalls on Saturday, but at this time it appears this will be south of our area. For this reason no flood watch has been issued. Trends will need to be watched closely. Ward LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)... Overview: The long term is still showing signs for a fairly active pattern with showers and thunderstorms forecast each day. Additionally, temperatures are going to be well below normal for this time of year with 70s and 80s forecast through the extended. This is ~10-15 degrees below normal at times. Plenty of clouds around during this time period with precipitation chances aiding in these persistent cooler temperatures into early July. Further Details: For the next several days there will be troughing aloft across central parts of the CONUS due to a blocking ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic/east coast. The base of the trough will sway back and forth and pieces of energy with clip the Panhandles nearly every day. At this time, there is a fair amount of uncertainty since the timing and southward progression of the front on Saturday keeps increasing, so that could play a role on convection Sunday. The GFS and European are in fairly good agreement with the upper levels now which was not the case yesterday, so that helps a little with confidence, but coverage and timing details will be better know after tomorrow for Sunday onward. Regardless, we have several days with an abundance of precipitable water values through this period, so in addition to severe weather chances we could be looking at localized flooding in urban and low lying areas nearly everyday. At this time, the chances for severe weather on Sunday are low given the lack of instability. However, the right entrance region of a 300mb jet and small vorticity max may aid shower/thunderstorm development, especially around and along the stalled front. Again, the front looks to be south of the Panhandles, but something we need to watch going forward. Beyond Sunday, its too early to say with much confidence the chances for severe weather, but instability is look pretty weak in the extended which would lead one to believe chances are low at this time. Guerrero && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/29