801 FXUS61 KRLX 250235 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1035 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure maintains dry weather through Friday. Hot, humid and stormy weather returns for the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1032 PM Thursday... Updated the sky grids and slightly bumped up surface winds across the region over the next few hours to better match the current trends. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 619 PM Thursday... Updated the sky grids over the next few hours to better match the current trends across the area. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 120 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure settles just east of the mountains today and remains there through Friday. Under the continued influence of this high pressure, tranquil and dry weather is expected both today and Friday. Southerly flow will bring warmer, moister air into the area which will allow both temperatures and humidity to gradually increase through the end of the week. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the lowlands and upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. Friday's highs will be in the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands while the mountains will be in the upper 60s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Thursday... Less active to start the short term period than previous thinking. Isolated showers or storms possible but not overly likely during the period due to lack of instability, along with upper ridge continuing to linger, and even build westward over the weekend, which should help to prevent much in terms of convective development. Best chances for precipitation look to be across the higher terrain during peak heating hours. It will however be increasingly hot, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1152 AM Thursday... Long term period characterized with upper trough lingering across central U.S., with ridge across the east, and deep southerly flow across the area, which will aid in moisture transport to the area. A frontal boundary, draped across the midwest during the period, along with several waves of low pressure that will move along the boundary at times as it slowly tries to progress eastward, along with diurnal heating, will create periods of showers and thunderstorms in the warm, humid, unstable atmosphere. Any storms that are able to develop will create heavy downpours, and localized water issues cannot be completely ruled out in an area that receives repetitive rounds of precipitation. However, widespread flooding, and severe do not look to be a threat at this point, although there is the possibility for a few storms to contain rather gusty winds towards mid week, as the possibility for development of strong downdrafts cant be ruled out, but still too early to say for sure at this point. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 830 PM Thursday... VFR conditions currently exist at all sites as tranquil weather continues. This trend will persist through the overnight, with the only concern once again being patchy valley fog across portions of the area. Most terminals should remain unaffected, with CKB/EKN being the most likely to experience restrictions. Currently have CKB experiencing brief MVFR restrictions, with EKN having brief IFR restrictions, both beginning approximately 8-10Z. Any deviation from the currently thinking in terms of fog extent/intensity could result in restrictions that vary from the current TAFS. Any fog that does form should dissipate quickly Friday morning, as tranquil weather will continue for the area. VFR should persist throughout the day Friday at all sites. Winds for the overnight period will be at a general S/SE heading, generally under 5 kts. Winds Friday will be S/SSE at 5-10 kts, with some gusts of 15-20 kts possible across the higher terrain in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and intensity of valley fog tonight may differ from the TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/25/21 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR currently expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB/04 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...04