183 FXUS62 KCAE 200718 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 318 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Claudette will move east across the region today and tonight. A front will move into the region Tuesday and stall just to our south Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing moisture expected late week into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today, have issued a Flash Flood Watch due to periods of heavy rainfall setting up that will be associated with banding features from Claudette. Rainfall amounts through tonight will generally be between 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Majority of the activity will be moderate to heavy rainfall, with only isolated thunderstorms through this evening. However, with the expected strong low-level jet and shear from Claudette, there will still be a slight chance of some storms showing rotation, and producing some wind damage today. Highs today mainly in the low to mid 80s. Tonight: The center of Claudette will move east of the forecast area towards midnight, then eventually near the NC coast towards Monday morning. As the remains near the water re-intensification is expected, so winds on the backside of the system may increase slightly and become gusty. Speeds not expected to get close to Tropical Storm strength anywhere across the cwa. Lows tonight in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... In the wake of the departing tropical low, some drying to occur but still enough atmospheric moisture to remain over our region Monday, with premise for scattered convection, though weak nva and weak shortwave ridging could reduce areal coverage. Upper trough will dig into the E CONUS Tuesday and bring a front into the region, with increasing moisture. Best POPs late afternoon into Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low confidence forecast Wed/Thu due to uncertainty with the frontal position. Model consensus appears to stall the front across the southern FA, possibly shifting just to the south of our FA Wed/Thu with some drier air possibly filtering into our northern FA. Guidance indicates another upper trough to dig into the central and E CONUS Fri/Sat, with increasing moisture shifting back north into our region ahead of the approaching upper trough and surface front. Utilized model blend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Claudette will continue to track eastward towards and through the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Periods of heavy rainfall expected in banding associated with the system. Areas with heavy rainfall will see periods of mvfr/ifr visibilities through the period. Ceilings starting off vfr, but guidance continues to show lowering of the cloud deck through the day, with mvfr ceilings developing after sunrise across the Midlands. The mvfr/ifr ceilings already beginning to impact the CSRA sites, and that will remain through the day. Winds will be out of the southeast to east this morning. Winds this afternoon and evening will be highly dependent upon the track of Claudette, with the direction becoming more westerly on the backside of the system. Speeds remain below 20 knots at all sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and storms expected once again on Tuesday as another cold front approaches the region. This will bring associated restrictions in the rain activity. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday morning for GAZ040-063>065-077. SC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday morning for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041- 115-116-135>137. && $$