063 FXUS65 KPUB 191614 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1014 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Updated to adjust timing and coverage of precipitation chances for this afternoon and evening. Moisture has backed a bit further west into the I-25 corridor this morning, with dewpoints in Pueblo in the lower 50s (as opposed to mid 40s by most guidance). Dewpoints on the Plains are in the lower to mid 60s. This should lead to better instability for this afternoon, with ML and SBCAPE values likely approaching 2000+ j/kg. Added the mention of severe weather over Kiowa County this afternoon, where instability, shear and moisture look to be maximized this afternoon. Elsewhere, current CAM projections have widespread thunderstorms, some being strong developing around noon, and pushing east across the Plains. Winds and hail will be the main thunderstorm risks as storms move off the mountains and into the Plains. Given the moisture pushing back into the Mountains, flash flooding looks to be an issue on area burn scars, especially over the Eastern Mountains. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 419 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...A few severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening southeast plains... Upper high gets suppressed to the southwest as shortwave energy moves southeastward across CO this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile...southeast upslope flow across the plains will advect 50 to lower 60 dew points westward towards the SE mountains through the morning hours before some mixing drops them back into the mid to upper 40s along the I-25 corridor and 50s across the plains by afternoon. Low level moisture has even increased across the San Luis Valley and upper Arkansas River valley thanks to spotty wetting rains which occurred yesterday afternoon and evening. KALS even picked up .42 of rainfall from a thunderstorm last evening with a dew point around 50 as of 09z. As energy from the upper level shortwave trough moves across this afternoon...should see showers and thunderstorms fire up across the mountains around the noon hour and spread eastward into the southeast plains. HREF mean CAPE values will be running around 750 to around 2000 J/kg across the southeast plains as convection moves off the mountains and encounters better moisture and instability. Highest CAPE values will be across Kiowa county during the late afternoon and evening. Deep layer shears will be sufficient (around 30 kts) for storm organization with hail to around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph the most likely storm risks. Although not a particularly high risk or high confidence forecast, can't entirely rule out an isolated tornado across northern portions of the southeast plains, mainly Kiowa county. Stout CAPE in this area may be able to stretch resident low level vorticity to produce a tornado most likely of the landspout variety, and hodographs do look favorable for supercell structure for a brief window before 00z. Activity then congeals into an MCS as it advances eastward towards KS with wind and hail becoming the primary risks through the evening for the far eastern counties. Most of the activity should be east of our area by midnight. Out west today...there is a low probability for isolated dry thunderstorms along the Continental Divide. However think these will be too spotty in nature to warrant any fire weather highlights and last check of fuels suggests green up is still in force across the western-most zones. With thunderstorms yesterday seemingly more in the wet variety and dew points even higher across the valleys this morning, this bodes to be the norm again today. Of course this will mean an increased risk for burn scar flash flooding today should a stronger storm hit one of these more susceptible locations. There doesn't appear to be any focus to suggest one burn scar over another will be more likely to be impacted today so no plans for any Flash Flood Watches at this point. This will continue to be evaluated. Otherwise, lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph and perhaps some small hail over the higher terrain will be possible with the stronger storms. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler given earlier onset to convection out west, and some minor cooling behind the cold front across the plains. Overall, still looking at highs around 5 degrees above normal. Some drying moves into western areas overnight behind the disturbance which may allow some of the cooler valley locations to drop into the 30s again...a tad cooler than the lower to mid 40s of the past night or two. -KT .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 419 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...A brief break in the heat for eastern Colorado on Monday... Sunday-Monday...Latest models continue to indicate the center of a large upper level high pressure system being pushed south and west of the region area through Monday, with increasing northwest flow aloft across the Rockies as a broad upper trough translates across the Northern Tier of States on Sunday, and continues into the Upper Midwest on Monday. The northwest flow aloft will help to quickly warm and dry the atmosphere on Sunday, with highs across the plains expected to be in the 90s, and mainly in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. The Northern Tier passing system sends a cold front across region with the front backing across the Palmer Dvd late Sunday afternoon and early evening, which continues to push south and west banking up across the lower eastern slopes by midnight Monday. Low level moisture pooling along and behind this front will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across southeastern Colorado Sunday evening and night, with the potential for a few stronger storms producing hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Increasing low level moisture and developing upslope flow behind the front will keep the potential for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms ongoing Sunday night and into early Monday morning for areas over and eastern mountains, with the plains waking up to low clouds and patchy fog Monday morning. Clouds to slowly clear through mid day Monday, with easterly low level upslope likely keeping temperatures some 20 degrees cooler than Sunday across eastern Colorado with highs generally in the 60s and 70s. However, further west across south central Colorado, highs will continue to be at and above seasonal levels, in the 70s and 80s. The low level upslope will also keep low level moisture in place, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected over and near the higher terrain Monday afternoon and evening, with areas along and east of the I-25 Corridor likely being too stable to support convection. Tuesday-Wednesday...The upper ridge to our west remains progged to build back overhead across the Rockies into the middle of next week, leading to warmer and drier conditions once again. Temperatures are expected to warm back to above seasonal levels in the 90s to around the century mark across the lower elevations, with readings mainly 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. There will be enough moisture to support more isolated afternoon showers and storms, again mainly over and near the higher terrain. Thursday-Friday...Latest models do indicate some energy riding the periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies, leading to the potential for more widespread afternoon shower and storms over the higher terrain, which could spread east onto the eastern plains through the late afternoon and evening hours, within weak westerly flow aloft. This could also temper temperatures somewhat, though will likely continue to see highs at and above seasonal levels in the 90s across the plains and in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 419 AM MDT Sat Jun 19 2021 VFR conditions expected at the terminals today. All three terminals have a good chance of being impacted by VCTS and gusty outflow winds this afternoon and evening. Could see local gusts to 40 kts and even some brief MVFR to IFR vis with +TSRA if a stronger storm impacts the area. KCOS could see some GS as well, though confidence is not high enough to introduce into TAF at this point. Window for greatest thunderstorm potential will be from 20z-23z at KCOS and KALS and, 22z-00z at KPUB. Activity should diminish and pull eastward through the evening hours with winds decreasing and VFR conditions expected again tonight. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT