444 FXUS63 KMPX 191026 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 526 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 .UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The shortwave responsible for the nocturnal scattered shower and thunderstorm activity north of Interstate 94, currently visible on water vapor imagery pivoting over northern Wisconsin, will continue shifting east of the area today. This will give way to plenty of sunshine, along with mild daytime temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and relatively light winds. Then we await the arrival of the highly advertised opportunity for measurable precipitation, which could bring precipitation amounts eclipsing values many sites haven't seen in over three weeks. That being said, mean QPF looks to range from one half to (isolated) three quarters of an inch, which wouldn't make too much of a dent in the 1 to 3 inch 30-day precipitation deficits from normal for most of the MN portion of the forecast area. 850mb Moisture convergence/transport blossom over west/southwest MN late Saturday night into Sunday morning, and spread eastward across the area attendant with the surface trough. By daybreak Sunday, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. Although the thunderstorms look to be primarily elevated in nature, we could see a few storms flare up over southern MN on Sunday afternoon/evening ahead of the cold front where 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear and around 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE are progged. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 With the passage of a strong cold front and CAA working into the region by Sunday evening, low temperatures will fall to readings we haven't seen since June 1st. Areas of central Minnesota will see lows Monday morning in the mid 40s with low to mid 50s elsewhere. Any lingering shower activity from Sunday will come to an end overnight with cloud cover following suit. Behind the departing front, breezy northwesterly winds will make Monday's highs in the mid to upper 60s feel downright chilly compared to what the majority of June has felt like. As the trough continues to slide eastward, 850mb winds become westerly to southwesterly Tuesday, allowing highs to climb back into the mid to upper 70s. A 30-40kt LLJ develops across northern Iowa/southern Minnesota on the northwest side of a building surface high late Tuesday. A few spotty showers are possible with this feature overnight into Wednesday morning, primarily across southern and southeastern Minnesota. Highs jump another ten degrees from Tuesday back to above normal levels as ridging and southerly flow increase for Wednesday. The next chance of precip looks to come Thursday as flow becomes more zonal with an approaching shortwave. While there are still some uncertainties with timing and placement, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible early Thursday through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Benign weather with VFR conditions will occur into this evening, and then showers and thunderstorms enter the area from the west overnight and Sunday, reaching MN sites between 08z and 12Z. Northwest winds back to the southeast this evening, with speeds mostly under 10 knots through the period. KMSP... Showers look to arrive around 12Z Sunday. There could be attendant thunder, but more likely during the late morning and afternoon hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind SSW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS LONG TERM...Dye AVIATION...LS