740 FXUS62 KTAE 181724 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18z Saturday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon with the exception of some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some MVFR ceilings are expected at KECP. More widespread showers with a few thunderstorms are expected to arrive near ECP and DHN late tonight into Saturday, then spread eastward through the day Saturday with conditions lowering to MVFR and occasionally IFR in the heavier rain. && .PREV DISCUSSION [840 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today]... Weak mid-level ridging oriented NW to SE across the region will gradually breakdown today, as deep-layer southerly flow advects tropical moisture northward, with Precipitable Water approaching 2.0" near the coast. A northward advancing front will provide sufficient lift for showers and a slight chance of thunder, especially close to the coast. PoPs are highest west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers, including the Forgotten Coast, where rainfall is likely. There will be a gradient in high temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s along the gulf coast, to the middle and upper 80s inland. The exception will be southwest GA, where less clouds/precip should allow temps to reach around 90 degrees. It will become breezy this afternoon, with southerly winds gusting around 20 mph over SE AL and the Western FL Panhandle. The Emerald Coast will have wind gusts up to 25 mph. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 will lift northward and approach the central Gulf coast tonight. As this occurs, rainbands on the eastern side of the storm will push across the tri-state area, bringing impacts to the region that are highlighted below. Even as the system lifts northward and likely tracks across Georgia on Sunday and further northeast Sunday night, the rain will persist across the region through the short term. PoPs remain high, particularly across the western portion of the region, on both Saturday and Sunday. Heavy Rain - Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 will bring heavy rain to the region, particularly across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia. These areas could see 3-7 inches of rain through Monday. A Flash Flood Watch was issued for that region and flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. East of there, generally 1-3 inches of rain is expected. The greatest rainfall totals are expected during the day on Saturday. Wind Gusts - The Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, just west of our forecast area. Gusty winds will still be expected across the western third of our CWA, particularly tonight into tomorrow. Beach Hazards - The stronger winds and waves will bring the risk of high rip currents and high surf to area beaches which will lead to dangerous beach conditions and the potential for minor erosion. The cloud coverage and rainfall will help to limit high temperatures to the 80s. Lows will be in the lower 70s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Unsettled weather pattern continues through upcoming week. In the wake of Potential Tropical Cyclone # 3, on Monday, southwest flow continues aloft w/several embedded shortwave perturbations. Meanwhile, there will be a stalled frontal boundary nearby, and Precipitable Water remains near 2.0 in., so heavy downpours remain a concern. PoPs reflect this at 60-70 pct. A late-season "cold" front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday and stall across the region on Wednesday. There is the potential for numerous showers and thunderstorms on both days, given ample moisture, sufficient instability and added lift from the front. Mid-level wind fields slightly above climatology and drier air aloft should be supportive of some strong storms both days. PoPs 60-80 pct both days. Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, the region will be on the eastern flank of the Great Plains ridge, with mid- level northwest flow. There is the potential for one or more Mesoscale Convective to approach from the Tennessee Valley. PoPs around 50 pct both days, remaining above climatology. .MARINE... A disorganized tropical system is expected to move toward the north-central gulf coast late tonight or early Saturday, then into the Southeastern US this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory for 20 to 25 knot southerly winds and seas up to 7 feet is in effect for the waters west of Apalachicola thru Sunday morning. While tropical storm force winds are not forecast in our waters at this time, uncertainty remains high with this system and we can't rule out tropical storm force gusts in any storms. Elevated southwest winds around 15 knots and seas up to 3 feet are expected to persist on Monday and Tuesday. .FIRE WEATHER... A wet pattern is in store beginning this weekend and continuing into next week. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected. .HYDROLOGY... Potential Tropical Cyclone three will bring heavy rain to the area beginning on Saturday. As the system lifts northward, rain will continue as a front approaches early in the week. This will result in rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches through Tuesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia. In addition, isolated higher amounts are possible. These amounts are slightly higher than yesterday and given trends, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for tonight through Sunday. Both flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible with the higher rainfall amounts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 84 73 85 73 / 40 80 60 70 60 Panama City 75 84 76 84 76 / 70 100 70 70 60 Dothan 71 79 71 84 73 / 40 100 90 80 60 Albany 73 83 72 85 73 / 20 80 70 60 60 Valdosta 71 86 72 86 72 / 20 60 50 50 50 Cross City 73 89 75 87 74 / 20 50 30 60 60 Apalachicola 76 84 76 84 76 / 40 70 60 60 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Holmes- Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton- Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Sunday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Clay-Early-Quitman-Randolph. AL...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...LF AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Fieux