198 FXUS63 KDLH 152324 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 446 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Summary: Dry conditions today and Wednesday. A cold front will move across the Northland Thursday and will support several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A few may be severe. Cooler and a little windier Friday with another chance of rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Temps Friday through the weekend will be either side of normal. More rain chances arrive for Sunday and Monday with temperatures dipping below normal for the start of the work week. Diurnal Cu field will dissipate over the next few hours. A few reports of sprinkles were received earlier this morning even though we haven’t noticed echoes on our radar. With high pressure at the surface think winds will diminish overnight skies should remain clear. Low-level winds will turn southerly for Wednesday with an 850 mb warm front nosing into western Minnesota during the day. Surface warm front will remain to our south. A cold front will slide into the region from the west and will fire off showers and thunderstorms starting in Manitoba and the eastern Dakotas Wednesday afternoon. High-res and deterministic models have a shotgun approach to the storms and the envelope of outcomes could charitably be referred to as “Pick your favorite forecast”. As a result, low confidence in storms making it into the Northland and have capped POPs at 35 percent. Looks like the best chance of storm development may hold off until the nocturnal low-level jet cranks up Wednesday night. There remains a risk of strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Given the low predictability of storms during that period, agree with the SPC highlighting a Marginal risk for the Brainerd Lakes area. Cold front will continue eastward for Thursday and another round of showers and storms is expected during the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may once again be strong to severe. The pattern shifts heading into Friday with cold air advection and northerly winds aloft. The pressure gradient will tighten as surface low pressure moves eastward across Ontario so winds should be a bit stronger Friday afternoon. Clouds will expand southward with time and scattered rain showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm are possible. A second cold front will dive southward into Minnesota by Friday afternoon and will keep a trend toward near-normal temperatures in the picture through the rest of the weekend. Another shortwave trough will propagate eastward across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest Sunday and Monday which will bring another chance of showers and storms. Temperatures may dip below normal for highs both Monday and Tuesday of next week. A welcome respite from the long period of above average readings we’ve experienced over the past several weeks. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 VFR conditions will continue this evening as diurnal cumulus clouds that developed today will continue to diminish. There is a possibility for some MVFR fog development late tonight for HIB, BRD, and HYR. It appears to be a brief window for fog, so we used TEMPO groups as opposed to prevailing. More VFR diurnal cumulus clouds are possible Wednesday, along with gusty southerly winds over north-central Minnesota. && .MARINE... Issued at 446 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Generally quiet conditions continue through at least Wednesday night. Northeast winds strengthen a little on Wednesday, but waves should still be 2 ft or less. A cold front moves across the lake Wednesday night and early Thursday, generating a round of showers and thunderstorms && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 78 59 83 / 0 10 40 20 INL 52 84 59 84 / 10 20 30 0 BRD 55 87 64 86 / 10 10 30 20 HYR 46 81 61 85 / 0 0 40 30 ASX 45 80 58 85 / 0 0 40 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...JTS MARINE...Huyck