422 FXUS61 KBTV 152257 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 657 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms over the North Country will gradually subside this evening, followed by a stretch of dry weather beginning tonight through Friday. Seasonable temperatures and low relative humidity will result in pleasant outdoor conditions. High pressure moves east after Friday, with chances for showers and storms returning on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 657 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is on track with only noise- level changes made at this time. The thunderstorm threat is ending as a surface cold front begins to exit far eastern Vermont. Lingering instability and moisture is sufficient for additional showers over the next couple hours before much drier air works its way in from the west. Clear skies and dew points in the 30s are evident over just about all of eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec where the low-level air mass will be coming in from overnight. Previous Discussion... Scattered to numerous showers continue to the east and west of a trough axis. Its base now sits across Vermont. A handful have been able to produce lightning, but with marginal instability and weak deep layer flow, they have been short- lived. Nevertheless, stronger updrafts may produce brief pea-sized hail due to the cooler than normal temperatures aloft. After 5 PM, daytime heating will decline and the trough axis will begin to shift east. Activity will gradually subside, and should be just about out of here towards midnight. Additional rainfall amounts of a few hundredths to a quarter inch are expected with localized amounts near a half inch possible in heavier activity. Overnight, light northwesterly flow and weak cold advection should allow temperatures will be about 5 degrees below normal this evening, with a few cold hollows like Saranac Lake falling into the upper 30s. Not anticipating fog overnight, despite the last couple days of rain due to relatively fast winds just off the surface. However, cannot completely rule out pockets of patchy fog. For Wednesday, dry air and high pressure take the reins. A supremely pleasant weather day is expected with mid 60s to mid 70s. Quiet weather conditions continue Wednesday night with temperatures falling into the mid 40s to lower 50s, and some cold hollows perhaps in the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure will continue to build into the region on Thursday with sunny skies and seasonal temperatures continuing across the North Country. We will begin to see some mid-level height rises Thursday night ahead of the next storm system this weekend. Weak warm air advection and moisture advection will be seen after midnight with overnight lows a few degrees warmer than previous nights with dewpoints climbing slowly through the overnight period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Tuesday...A noticeably warmer and more humid day is on tap for Friday as the aforementioned warm air and moisture advection continue across the Northeast. After a period of slightly below normal temperatures earlier in the week, we will see temps warm back onto the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday with dewpoints creeping back up into the 50s. Dry weather is still in store for Friday although trends are showing clouds overspreading the North Country from the west throughout the day. A strong upper level low will have it's sights set on the North Country on Saturday as it is expected to quickly dive southward across Ontario into Quebec. While it's difficult to nail down the timing precisely this far out, it does show some signs of dragging a strong frontal boundary through the region during the peak heating hours. The different global models give different representations on what may happen but the general consensus appears to favor some gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall associated with thunderstorms. The 12Z model suite encourages over 1000 J/kg with 30- 50 knots of 0-6 km shear which could be supportive if all of the ingredients can come together. It bears watching but it does look like we could see some nice thunderstorms across the region on Saturday. It looks like we should see a nice 24-36 hours of drier weather Sunday into Monday afternoon with weak shortwave ridging ahead of yet another longwave trough approaching from the west which is likely to bring additional rain showers and passably some thunderstorms as we head into Tuesday. The patten is beginning to look increasingly progressive and favorable to help alleviate some of the growing drought concerns! && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Currently a wide range of flight conditions as scattered showers have developed over the region. Coverage and intensity will be maximized through about 22Z, then activity should begin to diminish. Best chances for areas of TSRA will be KBTV, KPBG, and KEFK. A north-south line of MVFR ceilings will shift east along a trough axis currently over KMSS, that will reach KPBG/KBTV around 22Z-01Z, KMPV around 00Z- 02Z, and then exit east. Brief reductions to IFR visibilities and ceilings will be possible in heavier showers. West to northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected, becoming 5 knots or less after 00Z, and picking up again after 12Z. Skies trending clear after 06Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Haynes