853 FXUS61 KBTV 151107 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 707 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will swing through the region today along with scattered to numerous showers and a few non-severe storms. High pressure moves into to the area with dry and seasonable weather for Wednesday into Friday before shower and storm chances return by next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 704 AM EDT Tuesday...The current forecast remains in good shape with only a few noise level tweaks to hourly temperatures and dewpoints through mid-morning needed. Have a great day! Prior discussion... Upper trough will pivot across the region today with variable cloud cover and seasonably mild temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Cool temperatures aloft (-15 to -17C @ 500 hPa) combined with at least some modest instability and the passage of a surface trough should ensure a reblossoming of showers along with a few storms during the afternoon hours. WBZ heights below 10 kft suggest some small hail will be possible in the most robust convective cores, but lack of organization in today's activity makes it difficult to pinpoint the areal threat, and we're not looking at anything severe given marginal, near moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft. Surface trough then clears east this evening with broad upper troughing lingering aloft. Deeper low level drying will commence on light west/northwest flow however, so shower threat largely ends by early to mid evening with skies gradually clearing overnight. Some patchy fog will also be possible, but areal coverage is uncertain at this point. Lows mainly in the 40s to around 50. By Wednesday another lobe of the Quebec upper trough pivots into the region, but dry lower levels and surface high pressure building east should ensure a nice day under mostly sunny skies for most spots. High temperatures similar to today - mainly upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Tuesday...Relatively tranquil period of weather expected across the North Country for the Wednesday night through Friday period. Anticipate a dry northwesterly flow in place as mid- level closed low shifts ewd across southern Quebec into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. May see some associated lingering low-to-mid level cloudiness across Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, but the overall trend will be for clearing conditions Wednesday night, and mostly sunny skies for Thursday. Thermal fields remain relatively cool across the region. Should see lows mainly in the 40s Wednesday night, except in the lower 50s near the moderating influence of Lake Champlain. Temperatures reach the mid-upper 70s in valley locations on Thursday under nearly full sunshine. Dewpoints will remain quite low...generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Thursday afternoon, resulting in very pleasant conditions. PoPs NIL. Ridging crests over the North Country Thursday night with a quiet night expected. Will begin to see some S-SW return flow after midnight, and this will keep lows in the mid 50s across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley regions. Should still see lows 45- 50F across the Adirondacks and east of the Greens. The return of S- SW trajectories on Friday will allow temperatures to moderate into the lower 80s for afternoon highs, though humidity will remain low (2-m dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s). May see some increasing clouds late in the day as a frontal system moves eastward across the central Great Lakes. Associated precipitation should remain upstream of our region thru the daylight hours Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 359 AM EDT Tuesday...A vigorous mid-level trough is expected to approach from the northern Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday per 00Z ECMWF and GFS. Trough is expected to be fast moving, and best forcing is potentially coincident with max daytime heating (per 00Z GFS soln). Introduced increasing chances for showers Friday night (40-50% PoPs after midnight), and then 50-70% PoPs for Saturday afternoon, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Should see 2-m dewpoints recovering to near 60F in advance of the cold front on Saturday, and surface temperatures in the lower 80s would yield 1000-1500 J/kg. Low-level and deep-layer wind fields and forcing appear strong, and will need to monitor trends for a possible severe thunderstorm threat on Saturday afternoon, which should be the most active wx day of the long- term forecast period. Thereafter, anticipating slightly cooler and drier conditions for Sunday with highs back in the mid-upper 70s. Early NWP guidance trends are for increasing heat and humidity for early next week, bringing possible daytime showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Mainly a mix of VFR/MVFR through the forecast cycle, trending VFR by 00Z Wed as upper level low pressure pivots through the region. Some patchy IFR possible at selected terminals through 13Z, namely at KMPV/KBTV where confidence is highest. As upper low passes, a period of scattered showers likely at most terminals, generally from 15-21Z at NY terminals, and 18-00Z in VT. A rumble of thunder possible. Winds generally less than 10 kts through the period, trending from south/southwesterly, to west/northwesterly after 18Z. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...JMG