705 FXUS64 KEPZ 141738 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE... .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE... Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. MVFR conditions possible near areas with -SHRA/-TSRA, especially over area mountains. Some of the storms will generate gusty outflow winds that may bring BLDU. Storms start in the mountains this afternoon, and then move towards the lowlands after 21Z. Winds will be from the SE with speeds between 5 to 15 kts. Best chances for TS will be near KTCS, but chances are low. Gusty winds in the western slopes of area mountains are possible after 00Z along with some LLWS due to stronger winds aloft. && 29 .PREV DISCUSSION...407 AM MDT Mon Jun 14 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Our sunny and hot weather will continue for most of this week. Each day there will be just a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two in area mountains. High temperatures this week will run 4 to 6 degrees above average, which will keep most lowland locations having high temperatures near 100 degrees each day. For next weekend we will see much the same weather, with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average and just a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Monday and Monday night. Another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms on Monday. Hot temperatures as well, with heat advisories in place across Luna, Hidalgo, and southern Grant counties for temps around 105 degrees. Elsewhere, temps likely fall short of 105, but remain in the low 100s. Winds outside of any outflow boundaries will be light to mildly breezy. Coverage looks isolated, but a belt of ~30 kt 500 mb winds across eastern areas will add a bit of shear to the environment. As a result, a few storms may be potent with marginal hail. The gusty wind and outflow threat will remain as has been the past few days with any stronger boundaries producing blowing dust. Afternoon activity will be mostly confined to the mtns, especially the Sacs, and adjacent lowland locations. However, into the evening and early overnight, as higher dewpoints surge westward, may have to watch lowland areas for elevated storms if outflows linger. Regardless of what happens, 60s and 70s expected for overnight low temps Monday night as any lingering activity dies down by or around Midnight. && .LONG TERM... Not much has changed in the long term forecast, an area of upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather into next weekend. By Tuesday the upper level ridge will be centered over the Four Corners Region. At the surface a weak east flow will allow some moisture to trickle into the area, but aloft, the northeast flow around the upper level ridge will continue to bring in dry continental air. The dry air aloft will really keep a cap on the amount of convection we see each day. Thunderstorms will have a hard time getting going each afternoon. The best chances for thunderstorms (and they are not very good chances), will be in area mountains each afternoon. The upper level ridge will stay anchored over the Four Corners area through the end of the week, so each day we will see a repeat of very warm lowland temperatures, with just a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two in area mountains. High temperatures this week will be pretty consistent from day to day, with highs running 4 to 6 degrees above average, which will keep most lowland locations very near the century mark each day. For the weekend, the upper level ridge will finally be on the move again. By late Saturday, into Sunday, the upper level ridge will drop into southern Arizona. As the upper level ridge moves a little closer to us, we will see a slight uptick in our afternoon high temperatures, with highs running 5 to 10 degrees above average for next weekend. And like this week, we will continue to see just a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in area mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated thunderstorms expected on Monday, favoring mountain locations and adjacent lowlands. A few storms may be on the stronger side, especially east of US-54, with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated dry lightning possible in the Gila as well with any storms that develop. Through the rest of the work week, thunderstorms will be a concern across area mountains each afternoon with coverage isolated to widely scattered. Temps most locations remain 5 to 10 degrees above average with winds below critical thresholds at about 8 to 18 mph. Critical, to near critical, RH's most locations, the exception being the higher terrain of the Sacramento mountains. Additionally, vent rates a mix of Good to Excellent through the end of the week. Overall, not seeing any significant weather pattern changes into next weekend. && && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 103 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 95 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 103 71 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 102 67 100 68 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 78 51 77 52 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 103 73 100 71 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 97 68 94 66 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 105 69 101 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 105 72 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 104 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 100 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 103 69 100 69 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 95 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 103 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 102 71 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 102 74 99 75 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 101 69 98 69 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 104 70 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 105 72 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 101 71 98 71 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 89 56 87 56 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 89 55 87 56 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 86 53 84 54 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 97 62 93 58 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 100 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 103 69 98 68 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 99 57 97 61 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 100 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 102 57 104 58 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 101 56 98 67 / 0 10 0 0 Faywood 99 68 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 105 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 103 69 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 103 70 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 101 69 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ404>407. TX...None. && $$ 35-Delizio/15-Brice/29-Crespo